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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 26 January 2024 (provisional).

Survey results Q4 2023


Limited revisions to headline inflation expectations for 2023-25; longer-term expectations unchanged; core inflation expectations revised down for 2024-2025 and longer-term

More on inflation

Real GDP growth expectations slightly down for 2023 and 2024, but unchanged thereafter

More on GDP

Profile of unemployment rate expectations down slightly

More on unemployment

For the media

Headline inflation expectations broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey round, although this concealed upward revisions to HICP energy and downward revisions to expectations for HICP inflation excluding energy and food.

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report

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Working papers that mention this survey

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