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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 18 October 2024 (provisional).

Survey results Q3 2024

Inflation

Inflation expectations unchanged for 2024 and 2025, at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, and revised marginally downwards for 2026 to 1.9%; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2029) stand at 2.0%

More on inflation
GDP

GDP growth expectations broadly unchanged over the survey horizon; upward revision for 2024 largely reflects stronger than expected outcome for the first quarter of 2024

More on GDP
Unemployment

Unemployment rate expectations revised down slightly for 2024 to 2026

More on unemployment

For the media

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the third quarter of 2024

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report
SEE ALSO

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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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