European Central Bank - eurosystem
Meklēšanas opcijas
Sākums Medijiem Noderīga informācija Pētījumi un publikācijas Statistika Monetārā politika Euro Maksājumi un tirgi Karjera
Ierosinājumi
Šķirošanas kritērijs
Latviešu valodas versija nav pieejama

Forecasting and business cycle analysis

Up-to-date research on forecasting and empirical tools, as well as on quantitative models, is crucial to ensuring that the ECB has state-of-the-art tools at its disposal for its policymaking.

Forecasting and related tools

General area of interest: development and maintenance of a state-of-the-art toolkit for policy analysis.

Selected areas of focus:

  • development and application of nowcasting tools
  • use of high-frequency, real-time indicators to track economic conditions and labour market developments in the euro area
  • forecast combinations and density analysis using large Bayesian vector autoregressions

Model development

General area of interest: development and maintenance of models and tools for policy analysis.

Selected areas of focus:

  • development of large-scale models of the euro area, including the incorporation of climate change, digitalisation, globalisation, and demographic changes. use of high-frequency, real-time indicators to track economic conditions and labour market developments in the euro area
  • forecast combinations and density analysis using large Bayesian vector autoregressions
  • development of dynamic multi-country models for policy analysis

Understanding the inflation process

General area of interest: gaining a better understanding of inflation in the euro area.

Selected areas of focus:

  • main determinants of the euro area Phillips curve and its recent evolution
  • role of digitalisation in driving the connection (or disconnect) between wages and prices
  • role of climate change in affecting wages and prices
  • measurement of inflation expectations, characterisation of their determinants and their role in shaping the inflation process

Visas šīs sadaļas lapas