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Forecasting and business cycle analysis

Up-to-date research on forecasting and empirical tools, as well as on quantitative models, is crucial to ensuring that the ECB has state-of-the-art tools at its disposal for its policymaking.

Forecasting and related tools

General area of interest: development and maintenance of a state-of-the-art toolkit for policy analysis.

Selected areas of focus:

  • development and application of nowcasting tools
  • use of high-frequency, real-time indicators to track economic conditions and labour market developments in the euro area
  • forecast combinations and density analysis using large Bayesian vector autoregressions

Model development

General area of interest: development and maintenance of models and tools for policy analysis.

Selected areas of focus:

  • development of large-scale models of the euro area, including the incorporation of climate change, digitalisation, globalisation, and demographic changes. use of high-frequency, real-time indicators to track economic conditions and labour market developments in the euro area
  • forecast combinations and density analysis using large Bayesian vector autoregressions
  • development of dynamic multi-country models for policy analysis

Understanding the inflation process

General area of interest: gaining a better understanding of inflation in the euro area.

Selected areas of focus:

  • main determinants of the euro area Phillips curve and its recent evolution
  • role of digitalisation in driving the connection (or disconnect) between wages and prices
  • role of climate change in affecting wages and prices
  • measurement of inflation expectations, characterisation of their determinants and their role in shaping the inflation process

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