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Sofia Velasco

11 October 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2855
Details
Abstract
The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large-scale semi-structural model developed to analyse the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of approximately 90 of the largest euro area banks with those of individual euro area economies. It reflects the heterogeneity of banks by replicat-ing the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. Additionally, it allows banks to adjust their assets, funding mix, pricing decisions, management buffers, and profit distribution along with individual bank conditions, including their capital and liquidity re-quirements, and other supervisory limits. The responses of banks impact credit supply con-ditions and have feedback effects on the macroeconomic environment. Stochastic solutions of the model provide a solid foundation for investigating multiple scenarios, deriving at-risk measures, and estimating model uncertainty. The model is regularly utilised to assess the resilience of the euro area banking sector, including in the biennial ECB macroprudential stress tests, as well as to analyse the effects of regulatory, macroprudential, and monetary policy changes.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
12 April 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2261
Details
Abstract
The paper proposes a framework for assessing the impact of system-wide and bank-level capital buffers. The assessment rests on a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model that relates individual bank adjustments to macroeconomic dynamics. We estimate FAVAR models individually for eleven euro area economies and identify structural shocks, which allow us to diagnose key vulnerabilities of national banking systems and estimate short-run economic costs of increasing banks’ capitalisation. On this basis, we run a fully-fledged cost-benefit assessment of an increase in capital buffers. The benefits are related to an increase in bank resilience to adverse shocks. Higher capitalisation allows banks to withstand negative shocks and moderates the reduction of credit to the real economy that ensues in adverse circumstances. The costs relate to transitory credit and output losses that are assessed both on an aggregate and bank level. An increase in capital ratios is shown to have a sharply different impact on credit and economic activity depending on the way banks adjust, i.e. via changes in assets or equity.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation