Съдържанието не е налично на български език.
Silviu Oprica
- 13 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3233Details
- Abstract
- We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment. The analysis reveals a common supervisory judgement channel, which could reflect shared priorities and concerns, such as systemic vulnerabilities or macroeconomic conditions. We also show that certain risks, such as credit risk, can play a decisive role in the overall assessment of a bank’s viability. These findings underpin the critical role of judgement in adapting supervisory frameworks to evolving risks and systemic conditions, providing flexibility at both the individual and system-wide levels.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 3 May 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2276Details
- Abstract
- Using newly available information on euro area sectoral holdings of securities, this paper investigates to what extent the presence of institutional investors affects volatility and liquidity in secondary bank bond markets. We find that non-bank financial intermediaries, in particular money market funds (MMFs), have a positive impact on secondary bank bond markets’ liquidity conditions, at the cost of significantly increasing volatility of daily returns. The effect translates to more than a 19% improvement in liquidity conditions and up to 57% increase in daily-return volatility, assuming MMFs hold about 10% of the notional amount in the secondary market of a representative euro area bank bond. The effect is relative to the impact the non-financial private sector has on markets. Investment funds, insurance corporations and pension funds are found to similarly affect market conditions, though to a lesser magnitude. We find a trade-off between volatility and liquidity, where the stronger presence of institutional investors at the same time improves liquidity and increases volatility. The results suggest that possible structural shifts in investor composition matter for market conditions and should be monitored by financial stability authorities.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 15 October 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1597Details
- Abstract
- The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state interventions and mergers in distress. The signals of the early warning model are calibrated not only according to the policy-maker's preferences between type I and II errors, but also to take into account the potential systemic relevance of each individual financial institution. The key findings of the paper are that complementing bank specific vulnerabilities with indicators for macro-financial imbalances and banking sector vulnerabilities improves model performance and yields useful out-of-sample predictions of bank distress during the current financial crisis.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network