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Macroprudential Bulletin

Our Macroprudential Bulletin provides insight into the work we are currently doing in the field of macroprudential policy. Our goal is to raise awareness of macroprudential policy issues in the euro area by making our ongoing work and thinking in this field more transparent, and to encourage broader discussion on these key issues.

We aren’t trying to be transparent about our work just for the sake of it. This is also an opportunity to invite you to share your views with us by sending your feedback to ecb.macroprudential.bulletin@ecb.europa.eu. You can also send us an email if you want to be notified about future issues of the Macroprudential Bulletin.

October 2022

Issue 19

Why real estate is crucial for financial stability

Real estate boom-bust cycles often result in financial crises. We discuss why this is the case and what lessons can be drawn from the use of macroprudential policy for real estate risks in the euro area.

Read an overview of real estate and financial stability

Articles

Tools for assessing housing market risks

We regularly assess vulnerabilities in housing markets based on a comprehensive risk analysis framework. This article presents some of the tools and model-based analyses used, and discusses the importance of the insights they provide.

Read more on tools for assessing housing market risks

Macroprudential policy at work in residential real estate

Macroprudential policies support the resilience of households and banks and help to limit the build-up of vulnerabilities in housing markets. We discuss the transmission and effectiveness of these policies, as well as the ways in which they complement each other.

Explore macroprudential policy in housing markets

Commercial real estate and financial stability

The links between commercial real estate and financial stability are complex, but new granular data are helping us to understand their size and nature. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic also demonstrate how these links operate during periods of stress.

Discover the links between commercial real estate and financial stability

In focus

What drives changes in euro area house prices?

Understanding the drivers of house price changes and the effects of different scenarios on the housing market helps us to assess risks and identify suitable macroprudential measures. We propose a model framework based on Bayesian vector autoregressions to shed more light on these issues.

Find out what drives changes in house prices
Supply, demand and housing market risks

The housing market is in equilibrium when prices and investment are in line with their long-term determinants. Using a novel framework, we estimate that house prices are more than 10% above equilibrium levels and could drop as a result of weaker demand, while investment is close to equilibrium.

Read more on using supply and demand to assess housing market risks
How could higher interest rates affect households?

As interest rates rise, it is important to understand how this could affect the ratio of borrowers’ repayments to their annual income, also known as the loan-service-to-income ratio. We explore this using a simulation exercise based on loan-level data.

Understand how higher interest rates could affect households
Are risk weight policies similar to capital buffers?

Many EU countries have used sectoral risk weight policies to address systemic risk in housing markets. We show that sectoral risk weight floors, add-ons and multipliers have a similar impact to other sectoral capital buffer and leverage ratio policies.

Read about risk weight policies and capital buffers
Do shocks to real estate collateral affect lending?

Firms often use real estate as collateral against loans. We investigate whether this affected their access to credit during the COVID-19 pandemic, when commercial real estate prices were falling.

Explore whether shocks to real estate collateral affect lending

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