European Central Bank - eurosystem
Sökalternativ
Hem Media Förklaringar Forskning och publikationer Statistik Penningpolitik €uron Betalningar och marknader Karriär och jobb
Förslag
Sortera efter
Inte tillgängligt på svenska

2021 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2021 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 59 47 51 49 48
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 2025
<-1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.5 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 5.0 2.2 1.3 3.1 1.71.4
0.0 to 0.4% 14.9 7.4 6.1 9.6 7.14.7
0.5 to 0.9% 33.9 19.5 13.9 18.1 15.211.4
1.0 to 1.4% 27.3 36.1 29.5 30.9 32.523.1
1.5 to 1.9% 11.2 19.6 26.6 21.3 23.530.4
2.0 to 2.4% 4.3 8.8 12.4 10.0 11.515.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 3.4 5.7 3.3 4.57.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.93.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.91.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 43 43 34 38 38 32
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 2025
<-1.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.40.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.50.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 4.4 2.1 2.0 3.4 1.91.6
0.0 to 0.4% 20.2 11.2 7.1 12.5 8.95.8
0.5 to 0.9% 40.9 29.7 20.1 29.8 26.314.7
1.0 to 1.4% 22.1 31.6 33.7 30.9 29.827.1
1.5 to 1.9% 8.1 15.7 21.7 14.6 20.526.3
2.0 to 2.4% 2.0 5.9 9.0 5.2 7.613.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.7 1.8 3.5 1.8 2.45.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.13.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.41.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2025
Mean point estimate 4.4 3.7 1.9 2.7 2.8 1.4
Standard deviation 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.3
Number of replies 64 60 46 52 50 45
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2025
<-1.0% 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.30.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.51.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.72.4
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 0.9 3.4 2.3 1.36.6
0.5 to 0.9% 0.4 1.7 9.2 4.7 3.014.8
1.0 to 1.4% 0.8 2.8 14.5 8.1 6.324.3
1.5 to 1.9% 1.8 5.5 22.8 10.5 11.924.7
2.0 to 2.4% 3.5 10.2 23.5 14.3 17.614.7
2.5 to 2.9% 7.5 14.2 12.7 15.5 18.36.9
3.0 to 3.4% 14.2 15.8 5.5 15.4 15.12.3
3.5 to 3.9% 22.8 18.6 4.3 10.9 10.81.0
4.0 to 5.9% 34.3 21.4 1.0 10.3 9.00.4
6.0 to 7.9% 11.3 5.8 0.2 3.3 2.90.1
8.0 to 9.9% 2.2 1.5 0.1 0.8 1.00.1
>10.0% 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.30.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2021 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2021 2022 2023 Nov. 2021 Nov. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.8 8.1 7.4
Standard deviation 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5
Number of replies 56 53 42 39 37 38
Probability distributions 2021 2022 2023 Nov. 2021 Nov. 2022 2025
<5.5% 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.21.6
5.5 to 5.9% 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.83.3
6.0 to 6.4% 0.6 1.6 4.0 1.4 3.37.1
6.5 to 6.9% 1.2 3.7 7.8 2.5 6.713.8
7.0 to 7.4% 3.1 9.4 17.9 4.9 12.523.6
7.5 to 7.9% 7.4 19.9 28.3 11.8 19.720.8
8.0 to 8.4% 18.2 24.0 16.9 19.3 22.712.7
8.5 to 8.9% 24.5 17.4 8.9 18.9 12.36.7
9.0 to 9.4% 22.6 11.6 5.3 14.6 9.85.5
9.5 to 9.9% 11.3 5.4 4.7 10.4 4.32.4
10.0 to 10.4% 5.7 3.0 2.1 6.8 2.71.3
10.5 to 10.9% 3.2 1.8 0.8 4.5 1.60.5
11.0 to 11.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 2.4 0.70.2
11.5 to 11.9% 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.30.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.10.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0