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Съдържанието не е налично на български език.

Fabio M. Piersanti

3 December 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2335
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Abstract
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that: (i) the DSGE model underestimates growth of real variables due to its mean reverting properties in the context of a sample that is difficult to deal with; (ii) in spite of this, reduced-form VARs benefit from the imposition of an economic prior from the structural model; and (iii) pooling information in the form of variables extracted from the structural model with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics