Възможности за търсене
Home Медии ЕЦБ обяснява Изследвания и публикации Статистика Парична политика Eврото Плащания и пазари Кариери
Предложения
Сортиране
Съдържанието не е налично на български език.
PRESS RELEASE

Results of the Q4 2017 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

27 October 2017
  • HICP inflation expectations for 2017, 2018 and 2019 remained unchanged, while longer-term inflation expectations were revised upwards from 1.8% to 1.9%.
  • Real GDP growth expectations were revised upwards for 2017, 2018 and 2019.
  • Unemployment rate expectations were revised downwards at all horizons.

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2017 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.6% for 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, unchanged from the previous survey. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in the SPF, referred to 2022) were revised upwards from 1.8% to 1.9%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for real growth in euro area GDP averaged 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.7% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively, representing upward revisions of 0.3, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. Average longer-term expectations remained unchanged at 1.6%.

Unemployment rate expectations were again revised downwards at all horizons, such that the downward‑sloping trajectory steepened further, with point forecasts averaging 9.1%, 8.6% and 8.2% for 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively. The average point forecast for the longer-term unemployment rate was revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%.

Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q4 2017

(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

 

Survey horizon

2017

2018

2019

Longer term(1)

HICP inflation

 

 

 

 

Q4 2017 SPF

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.9

Previous SPF (Q3 2017)

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.8

HICP inflation excluding food and energy

Q4 2017 SPF

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.8

Previous SPF (Q3 2017)

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

Real GDP growth

Q4 2017 SPF

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.6

Previous SPF (Q3 2017)

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.6

Unemployment rate(2)

Q4 2017 SPF

9.1

8.6

8.2

7.9

Previous SPF (Q3 2017)

9.2

8.8

8.4

8.1

1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2022.

2) As a percentage of the labour force.

For media enquiries, please contact Stefan Ruhkamp (tel.: +49 69 1344 5057).

Notes:

ДАННИ ЗА КОНТАКТ

Европейска централна банка

Генерална дирекция „Комуникации“

Възпроизвеждането се разрешава с позоваване на източника.

Данни за контакт за медиите
SEE ALSO

Find out more about related content