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Stéphane Dées

21 July 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 503
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Abstract
It is common to observe that demand elasticities in trade equations for imports are implausibly large, and that they differ between countries. Both of these present us with problems, as they imply trade will rise without bound as a proportion of GDP. The research reported here looks for alternative empirical evidence of possible factors driving the increase in trade as a proportion of GDP. We show that the inclusion of the ratios of outward and inward FDI to GDP as additional openness and globalisation indicators appear to remove the spurious accuracy with which we are measuring demand elasticities.
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
22 December 2005
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 568
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Abstract
This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979-2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. It develops a sieve bootstrap procedure for simulation of the GVAR as a whole to test the structural stability of the regression coefficients and error variances, and to establish confidence bounds for the impulse responses. Finally, in addition to generalized impulse responses, the paper also considers the use of the GVAR for "structural" impulse response analysis.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Annexes
22 December 2005
ANNEX
23 May 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 750
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Abstract
This paper focuses on testing long run macroeconomic relations for interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping is used to compute both the empirical distribution of the impulse responses and the log-likelihood ratio statistic for over-identifying restrictions. The paper also examines the speed with which adjustments to the long run relations take place via the persistence profiles. We find strong evidence in favour of the UIP and to a lesser extent the Fisher equation across a number of countries, but our results for the PPP are much weaker. Also the transmission of shocks and subsequent adjustments in financial markets are much faster than those in goods markets.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
22 August 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 798
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Abstract
The US economy is often considered to play a pivotal role in global growth. Such a view has persisted despite the falling contribution of the US economy to global growth (from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% at present). In this paper, we analyse the veracity of this conjecture and consider the implications of cyclical developments in the US economy on the rest of the world. Overall we find that while US economic developments would indeed affect the rest of the world, developments in most countries and regions remain primarily affected by idiosyncratic shocks as well as by global factors, which do not originate from a single country.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
31 January 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 855
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Abstract
The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include refinery utilization rates, a non-linear effect of OPEC capacity utilization, and conditions in futures markets as explanatory variables. Together, these factors allow the model to perform well relative to forecasts implied by the far month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and are able to account for much of the rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
27 February 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 875
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Abstract
Modelling the link between the global macro-financial factors and firms’ default probabilities constitutes an elementary part of financial sector stress-testing frameworks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for the firm-level Expected Default Frequencies (EDFs), we show how to analyse the euro area corporate sector probability of default under a wide range of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. The results show that, at the euro area aggregate level, the median EDFs react most to shocks to the GDP, exchange rate, oil prices and equity prices. There are some intuitive variations to these results when sector-level EDFs are considered. Overall, the Satellite-GVAR model appears to be a useful tool for analysing plausible global macrofinancial shock scenarios designed for financial sector stress-testing purposes.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
31 March 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 882
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Abstract
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
30 April 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 892
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Abstract
New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires specifying the process for the forcing variables (typically the output gap) and solving the model for inflation in terms of the observables. In practice, the equation is estimated by GMM, relying on statistical criteria to choose instruments. This may result in failure of identification or weak instruments. Secondly, the NKPC is usually derived as a part of a DSGE model, solved by log-linearising around a steady state and the variables are then measured in terms of deviations from the steady state. In practice the steady states, e.g. for output, are usually estimated by some statistical procedure such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter that might not be appropriate. Thirdly, there are arguments that other variables, e.g. interest rates, foreign inflation and foreign output gaps should enter the Phillips curve. This paper examines these three issues and argues that all three benefit from a global perspective. The global per-spective provides additional instruments to alleviate the weak instrument problem, yields a theoretically consistent measure of the steady state and provides a natural route for foreign inflation or output gap to enter the NKPC.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
18 September 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 933
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Abstract
This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991-2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degree of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging economies is also significantly lower than for those from developed economies. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and particular events, like large exchange rates depreciations during the Asian crisis, seem to influence the degree of pass-through related to imports from emerging economies.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
23 March 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1034
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Abstract
This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this paper shows first that the transmission of U.S. cyclical developments to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the spill-overs might have decreased in the most recent periods, the effects of changes in U.S. economic activity seem to have become more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second-round and third-market effects, making U.S. cyclical developments more global. Finally, the slightly decreasing role of the U.S. has been accompanied by an increasing importance of third players. Regional integration might have played a significant role by giving more weights to non-U.S. trade partners in the sensitivity of the various economies to their international environment.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
16 June 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1059
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Abstract
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods forecasting di- rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches)out-perform methods based on the aggregation of country- specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three months ahead). Among the forecasting approaches used, factor models appear to perform the best. Moreover, direct approaches out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i.e. top-down and bottom-up approaches are broadly equivalent in terms of country-specific forecast accuracy).
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
15 September 2010
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1239
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Abstract
This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate equation. The IS equation includes a real exchange rate variable and a countryspecific foreign output variable to capture direct inter-country linkages. In accord with the theory all variables are measured as deviations from their steady states, which are estimated as long-horizon forecasts from a reduced-form cointegrating global vector autoregression. The resulting rational expectations model is then estimated for 33 countries on data for 1980Q1-2006Q4, by inequality constrained IV, using lagged and contemporaneous foreign variables as instruments, subject to the restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply, demand and monetary policy shocks. Following the literature, we assume that the within country supply, demand and monetary policy shocks are orthogonal, though shocks of the same type (e.g. supply shocks in different countries) can be correlated. We discuss estimation of impulse response functions and variance decompositions in such large systems, and present estimates allowing for both direct channels of international transmission through regression coefficients and indirect channels through error spillover effects. Bootstrapped error bands are also provided for the cross country responses of a shock to the US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
8 April 2011
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1322
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Abstract
Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Overall, our results confirm that trade integration fosters business cycle synchronisation. Similar patterns of sectoral specialisation also lead to closer business cycle co-movement. By contrast, it remains difficult to find a direct relationship between bilateral financial linkages and output correlation. However, our results suggest that financial integration affects business cycle synchronisation indirectly by raising the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Through this indirect link, financial integration tends to raise business cycle comovement between countries.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
6 June 2011
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1349
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Abstract
For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United States and the euro area. It shows under which circumstances confidence indicators can be a good predictor of household consumption even after controlling for information in economic fundamentals. Overall, the results show that the consumer confidence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of confidence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that confidence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a "confidence channel" in the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. confidence indices lead consumer sentiment in the euro area.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
7 December 2012
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 139
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Abstract
The onset of the financial crisis in 2008 has highlighted the problems of diverging external imbalances within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the role of persistent losses in competitiveness. This paper starts by investigating some of the competitiveness factors which contributed to external imbalances in euro area countries. The evidence suggests significant heterogeneity across countries in both price/cost and non-price competitiveness in the euro area and that there is no one factor, but rather a range of potential factors explaining diverging external imbalances. In particular, while non-price competitiveness effects contributed largely to the trade surplus in some countries, for some southern European countries the trade balance was also driven by price factors. The second part of the paper studies the implications of competitiveness adjustment by means of quantitative tools. Using four different multi-country macro models, improvements in both price/cost aspects (namely wage reduction, productivity improvements or fiscal devaluation) and non-price competitiveness factors (quality improvements) were shown - under certain conditions - to improve external imbalances. The analysis suggests differences in countries' composition of trade could lead to heterogeneity in the potential gains from improvements in competitiveness.
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
14 April 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1669
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Abstract
Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) { hereafter BNW {, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these shocks have a significant and persistent impact on domestic consumption and real GDP. In line with BNW, we find that confidence shocks explain a large share of the variance in real economic activity. At the same time, the shocks we identify are significantly correlated across countries. In order to account for common global components in international confidence cycles, we extend the analysis to a FAVAR model. This approach proves effective in removing the correlation in country-specific confidence shocks and in isolating mutually orthogonal idiosyncratic components. As a result, the (domestic and cross-border) impacts of country-specific confidence shocks are smaller and their contribution to business cycle fluctuations is reduced, confirming the global dimension of confidence shocks. Overall, our evidence shows that confidence shocks play some role in business cycle fluctuations. At the same time, we show that confidence shocks have a strong global component, supporting their role in international business cycles.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
21 August 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1724
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Abstract
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing, and forecasting price dynamics in four different sectors
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
16 December 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1749
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Abstract
This paper links granular data of financial institutions to global macroeconomic variables using an infinite-dimensional vector autoregressive (IVAR) model framework. The approach taken allows for an assessment of the two-way links between the financial system and the macroeconomy, while accounting for heterogeneity among financial institutions and the role of international linkages in the transmission of shocks. The model is estimated using macroeconomic data for 21 countries and default probability estimates for 35 euro area financial institutions. This framework is used to assess the impact of foreign macroeconomic shocks on default risks of euro area financial firms. In addition, spillover effects of firm-specific shocks are investigated. The model captures the important role of international linkages, showing that economic shocks in the US can generate a rise in the default probabilities of euro area firms that are of a significant magnitude compared to recent historical episodes such as the financial crisis. Moreover, the potential heterogeneity across financial firms
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
14 December 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1870
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Abstract
This paper investigates the main determinants of economic performance in the EU from a regional perspective, covering 253 regions over the period 2001-2008. In addition to the traditional determinants of economic performance, measured by GDP per capita, the analysis accounts for spatial effects related to externalities from neighbouring regions. The spatial Durbin random-effect panel specification captures spatial feedback effects from the neighbours through spatially lagged dependent and independent variables. Social-economic environment and traditional determinants of GDP per capita (distance from innovation frontier, physical and human capital and innovation) are found to be significant. Overall, our findings confirm the significance of spatial spillovers, as business investment and human capital of neighbouring regions have a positive impact
JEL Code
O17 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Formal and Informal Sectors, Shadow Economy, Institutional Arrangements
O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O18 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis, Housing, Infrastructure
R12 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
28 January 2016
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 167
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Abstract
Although monetary union created the conditions for improving economic and financial integration in the euro area, in the context of the financial and sovereign crises, it has also been accompanied by the emergence of severe imbalances in savings and investment, credit and housing booms in some countries and the allocation of resources towards less productive sectors. The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis then led to major and abrupt adjustments as the risks posed by the large imbalances materialised. Although the institutional shortcomings in the EU that permitted the emergence of imbalances have been largely addressed since 2008, the adjustment process is not yet complete. From a macroeconomic perspective, the imbalances in the external accounts have led to the accumulation of high levels of external liabilities that need to be reduced, which, in turn, is weakening investment and therefore weighing on growth prospects and growth potential. From a macroprudential perspective, the lingering imbalances have added to systemic risk and rendered the euro area more vulnerable to risks. This Occasional Paper analyses the dynamic patterns in macroeconomic imbalances primarily from the former perspective, addressing in particular the connections between macroeconomic and sectoral adjustments of imbalances and the challenges for economic growth and performance over a longer horizon.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
25 April 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1895
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Abstract
This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach is used to first assess the contribution of credit and asset price variables to real economic activity in a number of countries and regions. The GVAR model is based on 38 countries estimated over 1987-2013. An analysis on a sample excluding the post-financial crisis period is also provided to check whether financial variables have gained importance in explaining business cycle fluctuations over the recent past. In a second step, financial shocks are identified through sign restrictions in order to illustrate how financial and business cycles could be related. Overall, the paper shows that the importance of credit and asset price variables in explaining real economic fluctuations is relatively large, but has not significantly increased since the global financial crisis. The international transmission of financial shocks on business cycle fluctuations also tends to be large and persistent.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
30 August 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1953
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Abstract
This paper explores empirically the role of noisy information in cyclical developments and aims at separating fluctuations that are due to genuine changes in fundamentals from those due to temporary animal spirits or expectational errors (noise shocks). Exploiting the fact that the econometrician has a richer data-set in some dimensions than the consumers, we use a novel identification scheme in a structural vector-autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Our results show that noise shocks are more important for business cycle fluctuations than permanent (or technology) shocks. We also show that technology shocks turn negative a few years before recessions, while noise shocks are very positive at the cycle peaks. By contrast, the recovery from recessions is mostly led by technology shocks, noise shocks remaining negative for some time during this business cycle phase.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles