Nije dostupno na hrvatskom jeziku.

Klodiana Istrefi

Research

Division: Monetary Policy Research
Current Position: Senior Economist
Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
Email: klodiana.istrefi@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Other current responsibilities: 2023-
Associate Editor, International Journal of Central Banking; 2021-
Research Affiliate, Centre for Economic Policy Research; 2019-
Lecturer, Paris School of Economics
Education: 2018
M.Sc. on Economics and Psychology, Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne, France; 2016
Ph.D. in Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany; 2006
M.Sc. on European Economic Studies, Bamberg University & University of Tirana, Albania
Professional experience: 2014-2022
(Senior) Economist, Monetary Policy Research, Banque de France; 2014
Researcher, Center of Excellence SAFE, Frankfurt; 2001-2008
(Senior) Economist, Monetary Policy and Research Department, Bank of Albania
Teaching experience: 2022
Big Data and Central Bank Communication - International Banking and Finance Institute, France; 2022
Macroconomic Analysis and Policymakers - Paris School of Economics, France; 2019-2021
Short-term Economic Analysis - Paris School of Economics, France; 2018-2019
Time Series Forecasting and Data Quality - Center of Excellence in Finance, Slovenia; 2018-2019
Unconventional Monetary Policies - International Banking and Finance Institute, France; 2016
Introduction in Microeconomics - Paris College of Arts, France; 2002-2007
Introduction in Economics & Macroeconomics 1 - Economic Faculty, University of Tirana, Albania

ECB publications

19 December 2023

RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 114

Hawkish or dovish central bankers: do different flocks matter for fiscal shocks?

English

Abstract: This column presents evidence on the role that US monetary policy plays in how fiscal spending affects the economy. A dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delays policy rate increases, while a hawkish FOMC tightens monetary policy more promptly, following increased fiscal spending. We show that the dovish response supports fiscal expansions. In contrast, the hawkish response results in a GDP decline but effectively controls inflation expectations.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War

5 October 2023

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2851

Identification of systematic monetary policy

English

Abstract: We propose a novel identification design to estimate the causal effects of systematic monetary policy on the propagation of macroeconomic shocks. The design combines (i) a time-varying measure of systematic monetary policy based on the historical composition of hawks and doves in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with (ii) an instrument that leverages the mechanical FOMC rotation of voting rights. We apply our design to study the effects of government spending shocks. We find fiscal multipliers between two and three when the FOMC is dovish and below zero when it is hawkish. Narrative evidence from historical FOMC records corroborates our findings.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War

21 September 2021

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 274

Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world

English

Abstract: This paper examines the importance of central bank communication in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy and in underpinning the credibility, accountability and legitimacy of independent central banks. It documents how communication has become a monetary policy tool in itself; one example of this being forward guidance, given its impact on inflation expectations, economic behaviour and inflation. The paper explains why and how consistent, clear and effective communication to expert and non-expert audiences is essential in an environment of an ever-increasing need by central banks to reach these audiences. Central banks must also meet the demand for more understandable information about policies and tools, while at the same time overcoming the challenge posed by the wider public’s rational inattention. Since the European Central Bank was established, the communications landscape has changed dramatically and continues to evolve. This paper outlines how better communication, including greater engagement with the wider public, could help boost people’s understanding of and trust in the Eurosystem.
JEL Code: E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies

External publications

2023

Journal of Forecasting

Forecasting Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area via Machine Learning