Nije dostupno na hrvatskom jeziku.
Nicolò Gnocato
Economics
- Division
Euro Area External Sector
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- Education
- 2018-2024
PhD in Economics, Bocconi University
- 2017-2018
MSc in Economics, London School of Economics
- Professional experience
- 2025-
Economist - Euro Area External Sector Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2021-2025
Economist - Business Cycle Analysis Division, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Directorate, Bank of Italy
- Awards
- 2024
Finalist for the QCGBF Young Economist Prize
- 2017
Bonaldo Stringher Scholarship, Bank of Italy
- 12 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- China’s industrial rise is a key external force influencing euro area trade, production and prices by reducing costs for euro area companies, via intermediate inputs, and increasing competitive pressures in European and global markets. Econometric analysis shows that the increase in the exposure of the euro area to intermediate goods imports from China has been positively associated with industrial production growth, whereas the increase in imports of final goods from China has tended to weigh on production. Model-based simulations can capture the increase in competitive pressures from China via sector-specific productivity shocks. The simulations suggest that, at the aggregate level, EU GDP increases in the short term, driven by positive income effects owing to cheaper imported goods and by reduced production costs resulting from cheaper imported inputs, while inflation declines.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
L60 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→General
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3081Details
- Abstract
- What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with global production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show, analytically and quantitatively, that import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted domestically. By contrast, tariffs on intermediate inputs lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs. Moreover, inflation persistence is lower under tariffs on final goods, whereas tariffs on intermediate goods give rise to persistent cost pressures through production linkages. The results imply that revenue-equivalent import tariffs targeting only final goods can cushion the adverse effects of trade fragmentation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
- 2025
- Journal of Monetary Economics
- 2020
- Labour Economics