Ψηφιακό ευρώ
Το Ευρωσύστημα προετοιμάζεται για το ενδεχόμενο έκδοσης ψηφιακού ευρώ που θα λειτουργεί συμπληρωματικά με τα τραπεζογραμμάτια και κέρματα ευρώ σε φυσική μορφή.
ΟΜΙΛΙΑ
12 Μαΐου 2026
Ενίσχυση της ευημερίας μέσω βαθύτερης ενοποίησης
Η ολοκλήρωση της τραπεζικής ένωσης και η δημιουργία βαθύτερων κεφαλαιαγορών είναι καίριας σημασίας για την απελευθέρωση του αναπτυξιακού δυναμικού της Ευρώπης, αναφέρει το μέλος της Εκτελεστικής Επιτροπής Frank Elderson. Οι ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες χρειάζονται μια πραγματικά ενοποιημένη αγορά για τη στήριξη των επενδύσεων, της καινοτομίας και της ανάπτυξης σε ευρεία κλίμακα.
Διαβάστε την ομιλία
ΟΜΙΛΙΑ
8 Μαΐου 2026
Τα σταθερά κρυπτονομίσματα και το μέλλον του χρήματος
Τα σταθερά κρυπτονομίσματα δεν είναι ένας αποτελεσματικός τρόπος να ενισχύσουμε τον διεθνή ρόλο του ευρώ, δηλώνει η Πρόεδρος της ΕΚΤ Christine Lagarde. Η καλύτερη λύση εξακολουθεί να είναι η βαθύτερη ενοποίηση των κεφαλαιαγορών μέσα από την ένωση αποταμιεύσεων και επενδύσεων και μια πιο ισχυρή βάση ασφαλών περιουσιακών στοιχείων.
Διαβάστε την ομιλία της Προέδρου Lagarde
PODCAST
12 Μαΐου 2026
Μετάβαση στο ευρώ στη Βουλγαρία: τι συνέβη στις τιμές;
Αυξήθηκαν οι τιμές όταν η Βουλγαρία υιοθέτησε το ευρώ; Ή ήταν αβάσιμοι οι φόβοι για πληθωρισμό; Η Christine Gartner και η Ginevra Aguiari συνομιλούν με τον Paul Gordon για το τι πραγματικά συνέβη στις τιμές και τον πληθωρισμό στη Βουλγαρία και εξηγούν πώς οι αντιλήψεις και οι προσδοκίες έχουν αλλάξει.
Ακούστε το τελευταίο επισόδιο της σειράς Euro Matters- 12 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 12 May 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 10 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 7 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE IN THE EURO AREA
- 6 May 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 6 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 12 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the conference “Financing Europe: a new era of strategic investment”
- 8 May 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum in Roda de Bará, Spain
- 7 May 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Fifth Annual Charles Goodhart Lecture
- 7 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the joint conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European Financial Integration
- 6 May 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2026 Sustainable Development FestivalAnnexes
- 6 May 2026
- 11 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 7 May 2026
- 3 May 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Amanda Mars on 30 April 2026
- 22 April 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Eva Smal on 15 April 2026
- 23 March 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Segovia on 20 March 2026
- 8 March 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Benedetta Poletti on 12 February 2026
- 6 May 2026
- Digitalisation is reshaping how banks pass on monetary policy. Compared with their branch‑based peers, digital banks are faster at adjusting deposit pricing for policy changes, but slower at updating their loan pricing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 21 April 2026
- Artificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 April 2026
- During the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 9 April 2026
- Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
Related - 7 April 2026
- Europe’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability. Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices. Crucially, the tools to make this transition are already within reach.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 12 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3231Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the impact on cashflows and financial decisions of firms affected by wildfires, focusing on the wildfires that occurred in Portugal in 2017. Using establishment-level data from the hotel industry combined with geospatial information on wildfire proximity and land use, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to study both directly and indirectly affected firms. Our findings reveal that firms with direct damages from the wildfires recorded, on average, a 43% drop in revenues in 2018, while indirectly affected firms with a high share of burned area within a 1 km radius suffered a 24% drop. These cashflow shocks triggered distinct financial responses: directly affected hotels increased their reliance on long-term debt and coupled tangible asset investments with additional cash reserves, whereas indirectly affected firms reduced tangible investments and cash holdings. This divergence aligns with both real-options and reference-dependent risk preferences theories, reflecting the option to wait before investing and the shift in business fundamentals relative to the pre-disaster reference points.
- JEL Code
- G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3230Details
- Abstract
- Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated – and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which firms combine energy and a specialized input transported through a capacity-constrained transportation network. When congestion binds, energy remains available in local markets at a premium, whereas the specialized input is subject to delivery delays. Because energy prices reflect both raw energy shocks and transportation conditions, firms treat them as noisy signals of supply disruptions and update beliefs through Bayesian learning. This signal-extraction channel increases perceived marginal costs, generating an uncertainty wedge that amplifies and propagates energy shocks. Within a general-equilibrium New Keynesian model, the mechanism raises the impact elasticity and the persistence of inflation in response to transitory energy shocks. This challenges the conventional monetary policy prescription to “look through” supply disturbances.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
- 12 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- China’s industrial rise is a key external force influencing euro area trade, production and prices by reducing costs for euro area companies, via intermediate inputs, and increasing competitive pressures in European and global markets. Econometric analysis shows that the increase in the exposure of the euro area to intermediate goods imports from China has been positively associated with industrial production growth, whereas the increase in imports of final goods from China has tended to weigh on production. Model-based simulations can capture the increase in competitive pressures from China via sector-specific productivity shocks. The simulations suggest that, at the aggregate level, EU GDP increases in the short term, driven by positive income effects owing to cheaper imported goods and by reduced production costs resulting from cheaper imported inputs, while inflation declines.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
L60 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→General
- 11 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3229Details
- Abstract
- We revisit the debate on the effectiveness of central bank communication on exchange rates, contrasting a skeptical view, which holds that communication neither moves exchange rates nor influences them in the desired direction, with an optimistic view that it does. Using nearly 100 official ECB statements on exchange rates made during its monetary policy press conferences since 2002, we show that the ECB tends to mention the exchange rate when the real effective exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium value, whereas journalists’ questions are mainly responsive to the nominal exchange rate. Studying the effects of these mentions, our findings by and large support the skeptical view: after controlling for monetary policy shocks, exchange rate communication has limited immediate effects on the euro exchange rate, which fade quickly. Effectiveness is particularly limited when interest rates are at their effective lower bound.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
O24 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Trade Policy, Factor Movement Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy
- 11 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3228Details
- Abstract
- Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders’ credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles. Exploiting the 2015 diesel emissions scandal and the introduction of local circulation restrictions, we show that lending responses differ systematically across lender types, with captive banks tending to weaken, rather than reinforce, the effectiveness of environmental regulation for air pollution.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 11 May 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses how households adjust their saving behaviour in an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. Using an empirical model together with two general equilibrium frameworks, it evaluates how adverse shocks to energy prices and consumer uncertainty could affect the saving rate, and it examines the implications for GDP growth, inflation and the distribution of consumption across households.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 8 May 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 8 May 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 8 May 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3227Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market.
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 7 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3226Details
- Abstract
- Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the “old” EU Member States (EU15) and the “new” Member States (NMS12). The model introduces fully endogenous temporary migration and combines it with search-and-matching frictions in labour markets. Workers migrate temporarily in response to differences in labour market conditions and wages, allowing productivity shocks to affect local labour supply. The results show that productivity shocks in the host economy attract temporary migrants and increase labour supply. This migration response amplifies output fluctuations while leaving inflation dynamics largely unaffected. Migration also smooths wage responses but increases the volatility of employment. At the same time, temporary migration dampens the macroeconomic effects of productivity shocks in the sending economy by redistributing labour across regions. These findings highlight the role of labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism within an integrated economic area and suggest that cross-border migration can significantly shape business cycle dynamics in Europe.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box provides empirical evidence regarding a set of interrelated structural blockages that hinder European capital markets from supporting innovation and long-term growth. EU households save a significant share of their income yet disproportionately allocate assets to bank deposits or foreign equities, particularly in the United States, thus limiting domestic investment in high-tech sectors. Fragmentation in EU capital markets, driven by regulatory, tax and infrastructure disparities, exacerbates these issues. The efficient implementation of the policy measures proposed as part of the SIU strategy should advance the development and integration of capital markets.
- JEL Code
- E21, E22, F36, G11, G51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The Eurosystem is promoting the safe and integrated development of a European digital asset ecosystem, leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT) to enhance efficiency, transparency and integration in financial markets. Recent initiatives have confirmed the potential of DLT across various phases of the financial transactions lifecycle, reflecting growing interest and engagement from market participants. This box highlights the Eurosystem’s efforts to scale up innovation. These include its single work programme to develop a European digital asset ecosystem and its strategy to align its collateral framework by accepting DLT-based assets as eligible collateral for Eurosystem credit operations.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box looks at VC fund investors, showing that the limited involvement of institutional investors with large financing firepower is one factor that constrains VC funds when financing scale‑ups in Europe. The analysis also shows that the European Investment Fund (EIF) plays a key role, which could be leveraged to crowd-in private investors. Finally, the VC fund landscape is mapped against the existing regulatory framework to inform the upcoming review of the framework. This will make it possible to better address the needs of EU VC fund managers and, in turn, potentially expand the availability of VC investment opportunities for investors. Overall, the investor landscape for VC funds affects the broader innovation financing ecosystem in Europe, which would benefit from policies addressing fragmentation within the Single Market.
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- The box explores how taxation policies can affect savers’ investment decisions, given the objective of the savings and investments union (SIU) to increase retail participation in capital markets. The first part looks into tax processes in the case of cross-border investment, which remain a key barrier preventing the integration of capital markets across the EU. The second part looks into savings and investment accounts, which are one way to promote the development of capital markets and increase corresponding retail participation. However, there are several factors that can foster the success of dedicated savings and investment accounts, with taxation policies being only one of them.
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
G51 : Financial Economics
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- Harmonising corporate tax rules across the EU is challenging. Instead of harmonisation across all Member States being the goal, each country could be given the option of joining a harmonised tax area within the EU. Full harmonisation across all Member States could be achieved at a later stage. This idea is illustrated by a stylised example involving firms that wish to diversify investments across different countries while not wanting to be exposed to multiple tax systems.
- JEL Code
- H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2026Details
- Abstract
- Capital market supervision remains structurally fragmented in Europe, with 52 national authorities operating under 16 different institutional set-ups and limited, uneven EU-level oversight. This fragmentation leads to divergent supervisory practices and outcomes, despite common EU legislation. Compared with more centralised models such as in the United States, the EU framework is heavily stratified. The box argues that, although convergence of supervisory practices helps, a more integrated supervisory framework, including an enhanced role for ESMA, is a key necessary condition for consistent implementation and enforcement of EU rules, alignment of oversight with the cross-border nature of capital market risks, simplification and cross-border integration.
- JEL Code
- E61, F36, G18, G20, G23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 7 May 2026
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE IN THE EURO AREARelated
- 7 May 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 6 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3225Details
- Abstract
- Does artificial intelligence (AI) pose a threat to financial stability? We study AI investor behavior, specifically Q-learning and large language model (LLM) investors, in a mutual fund redemption problem with economic and strategic uncertainty. Different AI architectures generate systematically different outcomes. Q-learning investors coordinate well but under default risk exhibit excessive redemption that amplifies fragility. LLM investors internalize equilibrium structure but display belief heterogeneity, weakening coordination and predictability. Our findings show that AI architecture is a first-order determinant of financial stability.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 6 May 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3224Details
- Abstract
- We study how physical climate risk shapes bank lending activity and credit quality by combining high-resolution Copernicus flood geospatial maps with loan-level AnaCredit data. We exploit four major European floods (2021–2024) in a spatial regression discontinuity design comparing firms located just inside versus just outside flood boundaries (within 300–500 meters). We find that immediately after floods there is an increase by about 3.5 to 5% in lending, driven by liquidity demand, followed by a contraction of similar magnitude in the subsequent quarter. Interest rates follow a similar pattern, while default rates rise persistently by around 0.7 percentage points. Exploiting multiple lending relationships and firm–time fixed effects, we show that demand factors dominate: banks with greater exposure to affected firms do not systematically tighten credit supply. Nonetheless, relationship banks extend roughly 10 percentage points more credit to affected firms while imposing tighter collateral requirements, consistent with risk-sharing rather than unconditional support. Sectoral composition and pre-existing firm risk are the primary axes of heterogeneity in the immediate response. The findings shed light on how physical climate shocks propagate through credit markets and inform financial stability analysis.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Επιτόκια
| Διευκόλυνση αποδοχής καταθέσεων | 2,00 % |
| Πράξεις κύριας αναχρηματοδότησης (σταθερού επιτοκίου) | 2,15 % |
| Διευκόλυνση οριακής χρηματοδότησης | 2,40 % |
Ρυθμός πληθωρισμού
Περισσότερα για τον πληθωρισμόΣυναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες
| USD | US dollar | 1.1738 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 184.98 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86803 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9172 |
Χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα
Τα καθήκοντά μας Θεσμικό πλαίσιο Επισκόπηση Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας Μέτρα μακροπροληπτικής πολιτικήςΔραστηριότητες αγορών
Πράξεις ανοικτής αγοράς Προγράμματα αγοράς στοιχείων ενεργητικούΔανεισμός τίτλων στο πλαίσιο του PSPPΔΕΝ ΕΧΕΤΕ ΕΙΔΙΚΕΣ ΓΝΩΣΕΙΣ; ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ ΤΙΣ ΕΠΕΞΗΓΗΣΕΙΣ ΜΑΣ
ΜΑΘΕΤΕ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΑ
Τι είναι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα;