Digitálne euro
Eurosystém sa pripravuje na potenciálne vydanie digitálneho eura ako doplnku fyzickej hotovosti.
PREJAV
24. marca 2026
Výmena názorov na digitálne euro
Dnes o 14.30 h SEČ: člen Výkonnej rady Piero Cipollone predstúpi pred Výbor Európskeho parlamentu pre hospodárske a menové veci, aby informoval o prípravách na potenciálne zavedenie digitálneho eura.
Priamy prenos
ROZHOVOR
23. marca 2026
Monitorovanie rizík v prostredí vysokej neistoty
Ekonomické dôsledky vojny na Blízkom východe pozorne monitorujeme, uviedol viceprezident Luis de Guindos v rozhovore pre El Mundo. Budeme sledovať situáciu a venovať pozornosť potenciálnym sekundárnym účinkom.
Rozhovor
KONFERENCIA
24. marca 2026
Konferencia o prognostických technikách
Sledujte s nami dnes od 9.15 h SEČ druhý deň 13. konferencie ECB o prognostických technikách, na ktorej budú výskumníci, odborníci a tvorcovia politík diskutovať o najnovších metódach a deliť sa o svoje znalosti a názory.
Priamy prenos- 23 March 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ECB-SAFE-RCEA International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI)
- 23 March 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event on “Building Europe’s integrated digital asset ecosystem: from vision to implementation” hosted by the House of the Euro
- 21 March 2026
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at BRIE-CITRIS, Bruegel and the Bank of Finland Joint Workshop
- 19 March 2026
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 19 March 2026EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 19 March 2026
- 9 March 2026
- Opening remarks by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the NGFS Annual Plenary Event panel discussion on “Incorporating nature into supervisory practices”
- 23 March 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Carlos Segovia on 20 March 2026
- 8 March 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Benedetta Poletti on 12 February 2026
- 3 March 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 26 February 2026
- 21 February 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Emma Tucker, Chelsey Dulaney, Greg Ip, Nick Timiraos, Daniel Colarusso and Amol Sharma on 19 February 2026
- 19 February 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Laura Noonan and Nick Comfort on 17 February 2026
- 21 March 2026
- After a decade of Greek recovery, questions remain: Are banks strong enough to support the economy? What can be done to close the gap in living standards? This post explores Greece’s achievements, challenges and lessons on the path from crisis to recovery, and towards resilience.Details
- JEL Code
- E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
- 12 March 2026
- As payments and financial markets go digital, central bank money must evolve too. The Eurosystem is working with market participants to ensure that tokenised finance can settle safely in central bank money, supporting innovation, integration and Europe’s financial sovereignty.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 10 March 2026
- Healthy oceans are vital for our economies. Stopping marine degradation would protect industries like fishing and tourism, while also helping to combat climate change. The ECB Blog discusses the action that needs to be taken and why these challenges matter to central banks.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 9 March 2026
- Euro area unemployment is near record lows and set to fall further. Yet wage growth is projected to moderate. Paradox? Not if you look beyond unemployment – immigration, participation, job switching and firms’ hiring intentions are all part of the story.Details
- JEL Code
- J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 4 March 2026
- Artificial intelligence is everywhere, and the workplace is no exception. But will it empower workers, or is it set to replace them? This blog post looks at the impact of AI use and investment on firms’ current and future hiring and firing decisions.Details
- JEL Code
- O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
- 24 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3204Details
- Abstract
- This paper quantifies the role of housing wealth in the transmission of monetary policy to consumption in 20 advanced economies. Using Bayesian VAR models we identify structural shocks with a novel combination of sign and maximum forecast error variance restrictions, isolating the housing wealth channel through counterfactual impulse responses. We find that the housing wealth multiplier — the sensitivity of consumption to exogenous house price changes — is strongly correlated with outright homeownership rates and is higher for durable consumption. Cross-country differences in the monetary policy transmission to consumption are largely driven by the cash-flow channel.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 24 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3203Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the short-term macroeconomic and sectoral effects of extreme weather events in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We construct novel indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation based on percentile thresholds of long-run historical distributions and estimate their impact through country-specific structural Bayesian VAR models. The analysis documents sizable and heterogeneous effects on real GDP, HICP, and sectoral activity over a one-year horizon. Temperature extremes primarily affect industrial and energy-related sectors, with Germany exhibiting the strongest vulnerability to heatwaves. Precipitation extremes mainly impact construction and mining, with Spain featuring the largest exposure to floods and droughts. Sectoral composition plays a key role in shaping transmission, with pharmaceuticals, electricity, construction, and mining displaying distinct and recurrent patterns. Given their impact on prices, extreme weather event shocks may exert inflationary pressures without hurting activity, or induce demand-type of effects on the overall economy, with different effects across countries.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- 24 March 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 141Details
- Abstract
- Our new methodology builds an inter-country input-output table that distinguishes green products from the rest, allowing us to assess vulnerabilities in green value chains. In a multi-country, multi-sector model, our table reveals that a decoupling of green supply chains between a US-centric West and a China-centric East could globally cut trade in green products by up to 20%, lower welfare by up to 3% and raise yearly global greenhouse gas emissions by about 50 million tonnes.
- JEL Code
- C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
- 23 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3202Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on trade flows. Consistent with trade costs theory, we find that inter-connected countries have around 4% higher trade volumes, roughly half the effect of a trade agreement and a quarter of the effect of a common currency area. Our results isolate the average effect on trade, of directly connecting fast payment systems, net of country pairs already accessing the correspondent banking network. The estimated impact is larger for payment systems that allow wholesale transactions, those that link small countries, which, typically, are less connected to the correspondent banking network, and for geographical areas that face high cross-border payment costs. This suggests that the benefits from interlinking are derived from reduced cross-border trade costs. Our findings are causal – proved by parametric and semi-parametric estimators – and robust to numerous additional controls, including exclusion of the largest interlinked country group, the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 23 March 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 382Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of analytical work conducted largely in 2025, under their own aegis, by experts from various European central banks and authorities in the field of crypto-asset monitoring and presented at the Crypto-Asset Monitoring Expert Group (CAMEG) 2025 Conference. Currently, risks stemming from crypto-assets and the potential implications for central banking and relevant authorities’ domains remain limited and/or manageable, also given the existing regulatory and oversight frameworks. Nevertheless, the importance of monitoring developments in crypto-assets, raising awareness of the potential risks and fostering analytical preparedness cannot be overstated. This paper offers a brief background of the 2025 activities of CAMEG, which brings together experts from the European System of Central Banks and the European Banking Authority. It also provides abstracts from various CAMEG and non-CAMEG papers and other analytical works presented at the conference held on 30 and 31 October 2025. The conference aimed to take stock of analytical work and data issues in the area of crypto-assets, while fostering European collaboration and monitoring in this field. Finally, this paper outlines the prospective way forward for CAMEG, focusing on gaining greater insight into data and deepening analytical work on interlinkages, crypto-asset adoption and the latest trends.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 23 March 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 19 March 2026
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 19 March 2026
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 12 March 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 10 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3201Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions,this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply and policy and non-policy demand factors, including fiscal policy, conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Factoring in that energy price dynamics also responded to aggregate demand conditions, we find that the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area was driven by a combination of supply and demand factors. Energy-related supply side constraints, even if less important than often estimated, were a key factor in the run up of inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies were accommodative but not the dominant drivers.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 10 March 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 6 March 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 5 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3200Details
- Abstract
- We introduce a novel methodology, ”parametric tilting,” for incorporating external information into econometric model-based density forecasts. Unlike traditional entropic tilting, which can generate unrealistic or unstable distributions under certain conditions, parametric tilting ensures more reliable and numerically stable results. Our approach leverages the flexibility of the skew-T distribution, which captures key moments of macroeconomic time series, and minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the target and model-based distributions. This method overcomes limitations of entropic tilting, such as multimodal or degenerate distributions, providing a robust alternative for policymakers and researchers aiming to integrate external views into probabilistic forecasting frameworks.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 March 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3199Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the effects of stablecoin adoption—crypto-assets designed to maintain a stable value relative to a reference asset—on bank intermediation and the transmission of monetary policy. Using evidence from the rapid expansion of stablecoins combined with confidential granular data on euro area banks and their individual borrowers, we document three main findings. First, stablecoin adoption induces a deposit-substitution mechanism, whereby funds shift from retail bank deposits to digital assets. This reallocation increases banks’ reliance on wholesale funding and can ultimately constrain their intermediation capacity. Second, we show that stablecoins alter the passthrough of policy rates to bank funding costs and lending conditions and potentially weaken the predictability of policy actions. These effects are nonlinear and depend critically on the scale of stablecoin adoption, their design features, and their regulatory treatment. Third, we document a potential risk associated with the growing prevalence of foreign-currency-denominated stablecoins. Their diffusion is likely to increase banks’ reliance on foreign-currency wholesale funding. We show that banks with greater exposure to this source of funding exhibit a weaker loan-supply response to domestic monetary policy shocks, indicating a weakening of monetary policy transmission and a potential erosion of monetary sovereignty.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 3 March 2026
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 2 March 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 2 March 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 27 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3198Details
- Abstract
- We investigate whether satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) – a short-lived pollutant primarily emitted by fossil fuel combustion – can improve the forecasting of oil demand. After retrieving, cleaning, and aggregating daily satellite data, we integrate NO₂ into a range of forecasting models. Across a panel of advanced and emerging economies, we find that including NO₂ significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy relative to benchmark models based on autoregressive terms and traditional predictors such as industrial activity, prices, weather, and vehicle registrations. Accuracy gains are particularly strong during crisis episodes but remain present in more stable times. Non-linear models, especially neural networks, yield the largest improvements, highlighting the non-linear link between energy demand and pollution. By offering a timely, globally consistent, and freely available proxy, satellite-based NO₂ data provide a valuable new tool for real-time monitoring of oil dema
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 27 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3197Details
- Abstract
- We study the distributional consequences of the recent inflationary surge and the subsequent monetary policy response in the euro area. Using an estimated two-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with an overlapping generations structure, we analyze the macroeconomic shocks driving inflation between 2021 and 2022. We find that these shocks generated substantial redistribution from young and poor households toward older and wealthier ones. By keeping interest rates unchanged until mid-2022, monetary policy largely offset these distributional effects. A policy response based solely on a standard Taylor rule would have failed to mitigate the redistribution.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
- 26 February 2026
- ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEMEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 26 February 2026
- ANNUAL ACCOUNTSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 26 February 2026
- ANNUAL ACCOUNTSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 26 February 2026
- ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEMEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
Úrokové sadzby
| Jednodňové sterilizačné operácie | 2,00 % |
| Hlavné refinančné operácie (pevná sadzba) | 2,15 % |
| Jednodňové refinančné operácie | 2,40 % |
Miera inflácie
Viac o infláciiVýmenné kurzy
| USD | US dollar | 1.1596 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 183.86 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86420 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9124 |
PRÍLIŠ ODBORNÁ TÉMA? ECB VYSVETĽUJE
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Čo je to Európska centrálna banka?