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Daniel Dieckelmann

Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability

Division

Systemic Risk&Financial Institutions

Current Position

Financial Stability Expert

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,Other Special Topics

Email

daniel.dieckelmann@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2017-2021

PhD in Economics, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

2019

Visiting PhD candidate, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States

9 November 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2870
Details
Abstract
We empirically analyze the interaction of monetary policy with financial stability and the real economy in the euro area. For this, we apply a quantile vector autoregressive model and two alternative estimation approaches: simulation and local projections. Our specifications include monetary policy surprises, real GDP, inflation, financial vulnerabilities and systemic financial stress. We disentangle conventional and unconventional monetary policy by separating interest rate surprises into two factors that move the yield curve either at the short end or at the long end. Our results show that a build-up of financial vulnerabilities tends to be accompanied initially by subdued financial stress which resurges, however, over a medium-term horizon, harming economic growth. Tighter conventional monetary policy reduces inflationary pressures but increases the risk of financial stress. [...]
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
23 February 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2789
Details
Abstract
The acceleration of house price growth amidst falling interest rates to record-low levels across euro area countries between 2015 and 2021 has sparked renewed interest in the link between the two variables. Asset-pricing theory suggests that real house prices respond to changes in real interest rates in a non-linear fashion. This non-linearity should be especially pronounced at very low real interest rates. Most existing empirical studies estimate models with a con-stant semi-elasticity, thereby ruling out by design the potential non-linearities between house prices and interest rates. To address this issue, we estimate a panel model for the euro area countries with a constant interest rate elasticity (as opposed to a constant semi-elasticity), which is consistent with asset pricing theory. Our empirical results suggest that, in a low interest rate environment such as the period between 2015 and 2021, non-linearities in the house price response to interest rate changes are important: an increase of real interest rates from ultra-low levels could lead to downward pressure on real house prices three to eight times higher than the literature suggests.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
15 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
Since the start of 2022, euro area households have seen the largest increase in consumer prices in decades and the first increase in interest rates in over ten years. For some households – especially those with lower incomes – these shocks could lead to financial distress, including debt defaults. Simulations of the impact of rising consumer prices and interest rates on the near-term financial health of households reveal a more pronounced risk of default in lower income quintiles. For most countries, systemic risk arising from loans originated in lower income quintiles, which represent a lower share of total household debt than loans originated in higher income quintiles, is limited, although it is more significant in some countries. Policy support aimed at dampening the impact of shocks could help to mitigate the risk. Across the euro area, second-round effects stemming from foregone consumption in response to higher financial burdens could weigh on economic performance and further impair banks’ asset quality.
JEL Code
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
25 May 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
House prices increased substantially in advanced economies during the pandemic, fuelling concerns about possible price reversals and their implications for financial stability. Shifts in housing preferences, possibly reflecting a desire for more space coupled with less need for commuting due to teleworking modalities, and low interest rates have been important drivers of such recent strong house price growth across advanced economies. In the current low interest rate environment, increased sensitivity of house price growth to changes in real interest rates makes substantial house price reversals more likely. An abrupt repricing in the housing market – if the demand for housing were to go into reverse, for example, with a return to pre-pandemic work modalities, or real interest rates were to rise significantly – could produce spillovers to the wider financial system and economy.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General