Ψηφιακό ευρώ
Το Ευρωσύστημα προετοιμάζεται για το ενδεχόμενο έκδοσης ψηφιακού ευρώ που θα λειτουργεί συμπληρωματικά με τα τραπεζογραμμάτια και κέρματα ευρώ σε φυσική μορφή.
ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΔΕΛΤΙΟ
11 Νοεμβρίου 2026
Ποιος διακρατεί σταθερά κρυπτονομίσματα στη ζώνη του ευρώ;
Σύμφωνα με στοιχεία της έρευνας της ΕΚΤ για τις προσδοκίες των καταναλωτών, πάνω από το ένα τρίτο των κατόχων κρυπτοστοιχείων στη ζώνη του ευρώ διακρατούν σταθερά κρυπτονομίσματα (stablecoins), συχνά σε μικρές ποσότητες, κυρίως ψηφιακά παραστατικά αξίας συνδεδεμένα με δολάρια ΗΠΑ. Το Οικονομικό Δελτίο εξετάζει τι θα σήμαινε η ευρύτερη υιοθέτηση stablecoin για τη χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα.
Διαβάστε το Πλαίσιο 8 του Οικονομικού μας Δελτίου
ΟΜΙΛΙΑ
10 Νοεμβρίου 2026
Επικοινωνία για τη νομισματική πολιτική: η εμπειρία της ΕΚΤ
Η παροχή ενδείξεων βάσει του πλαισίου αναφοράς είναι πιο αποτελεσματική από την παροχή ενδείξεων για τη μελλοντική κατεύθυνση των επιτοκίων όταν τα επιτόκια πολιτικής απέχουν από το ελάχιστο κατώτατο όριο, αναφέρει ο επικεφαλής οικονομολόγος Philip R. Lane. Επιπλέον, εξετάζει πρόσφατη έρευνα της ΕΚΤ σχετικά με την επικοινωνία για τη νομισματική πολιτική.
Διαβάστε την ομιλία
ΤΟ ΙΣΤΟΛΟΓΙΟ ΤΗΣ ΕΚΤ
11 Νοεμβρίου 2026
Πώς η κρίση δημόσιου χρέους διαμόρφωσε την ανισότητα πλούτου
Η κρίση δημόσιου χρέους οδήγησε σε έντονη αύξηση της άνισης κατανομής πλούτου στη ζώνη του ευρώ. Έκτοτε, αυτή η ανισότητα έχει σταδιακά επιστρέψει στις συνθήκες που επικρατούσαν πριν από την κρίση. Ωστόσο, οι επιδράσεις της είναι ακόμη αισθητές και ορατές σήμερα στις χώρες που επλήγησαν σοβαρότερα από την κρίση.
Διαβάστε το ιστολόγιο της ΕΚΤ- 10 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 10 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 November 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 10 November 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference
- 10 November 2026
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 5 November 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2026
- 5 November 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the eighth International Conference of Regional Card Schemes and Retail Financial Market Infrastructures
- 2 November 2026
- Speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial System ConferenceAnnexes
- 7 November 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Hironari Akiyama on 4 November 2026
- 24 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Roberto Sommella on 21 October 2026
- 20 October 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Aloysius Widmann on 14 October 2026
- 8 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 23 September 2026
- 6 October 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026
- 11 November 2026
- The sovereign debt crisis led to a marked increase in wealth inequality in the euro area. Since then, inequality has slowly returned to pre-crisis conditions. Yet, its effects are still felt and visible today in the countries most severely affected by the crisis.Details
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 4 November 2026
- This summer's heatwaves, droughts and wildfires were a warning. Their economic impact has so far been limited, but the costs of a warming climate are rising. Europe needs better protection against the financial fallout of climate change and a more flexible energy system that makes the most of clean power.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 3 November 2026
- Despite the expansion of the Single Euro Payments Area, or SEPA for short, many households continue to rely on costly channels for transferring money across borders in Europe. New survey evidence suggests that public awareness of European payment integration is still surprisingly limited.Details
- JEL Code
- F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- Has the latest energy shock triggered a new wave of food price increases? To find out, we’ve used innovative AI tools to track changes in price setting by supermarkets. So far, the rise in the repricing momentum has been weaker than in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
- 21 October 2026
- Despite a sharp rise in energy prices in early 2026, the euro area economy has proved resilient. This blog examines how decreased vulnerability to energy shocks, policy support and the global AI upswing have helped cushion the impact, and explores what is needed to sustain that resilience.Details
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 11 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at whether stablecoins are on the rise in the euro area and what the implications are for financial stability, using data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. It highlights the transactional nature of stablecoins and the risks posed by an increase in consumer holdings. While current exposures remain limited, the analysis underscores the importance of monitoring the use of stablecoins and the potential spillover effects on consumer confidence and financial markets.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 11 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3309The real and financial effects of local corporate tax increases: evidence from linked firm–bank dataDetails
- Abstract
- We study how local corporate tax increases affect firms’ financing and real activity. In Portugal, municipalities independently set a surtax on corporate income, generating plausibly exogenous variation across space and time. We link the universe of corporate balance sheets and profit-and-loss statements to loan-level data from the Bank of Portugal’s credit registry, allowing us to track firms’ liquidity, leverage, borrowing costs, and credit quality alongside revenues, employment, and productivity. We estimate local-projection difference-in-differences models that address staggered treatment timing and dynamic responses. Surtax hikes immediately tighten financing conditions: liquidity falls, implicit interest rates rise, debt increases at shorter maturities, and non-performing loans become more prevalent. These strains spill over into real outcomes: firms reduce sales and employment and experience persistent declines in total factor productivity. Effects are strongest among small firms, where leverage rises in response to liquidity losses. We also find higher exit and relocation probabilities, but no gains in neighboring output, pointing to inefficient reallocation. Our results highlight how local tax policy can transmit through both financial and real margins, with implications for fiscal design in decentralized settings.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
H71 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- 11 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Energy market developments continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East. Global refinery runs have fallen significantly compared to previous years, driven by reduced refinery activity in the Middle East, Russia and Asia. The constrained supply of crude oil and refined products has led to a persistent global increase in refining margins and costs, particularly for diesel. In view of the important role of refining costs and margins in transport and heating fuel inflation, the ECB’s short-term inflation projection model for energy shows that expected heightened trajectories for refined energy product prices may lead to higher energy inflation even if oil prices move in the opposite direction.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 10 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Banks are at the heart of the EU economy, making them a key channel for monetary policy transmission. However, institutional factors continue to lead to fragmentation in the sector, constraining scale, efficiency and competitiveness. As shown by Altavilla et al. (2024), more competitive banks are more resilient to shocks and transmit monetary policy more effectively. The competitiveness of euro area banks has improved in recent years, reflecting stronger balance sheets and higher intermediation margins, but pockets of cost inefficiency and issues of scale remain, leaving further room for improvement. These factors could be eased by completing the savings and investments union and facilitating cross-border lending to increase both scale and efficiency, resulting in the smoother transmission of monetary policy in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 10 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Motivated by the renewed use of industrial policy, this article examines the conditions under which sector-specific interventions can support productivity, competitiveness, and economic resilience. While industrial policy may be justified where market failures or dependencies are well-identified, selective intervention entails risks of distortion through rent-seeking and resource misallocation. These risks are particularly relevant in the EU, where uncoordinated industrial policy is implemented in a multi-country Single Market with heterogeneous institutions and bank-based financial structures. In this setting, industrial policy can be effective only with credible governance and complementary structural reforms.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
L52 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Industrial Policy, Sectoral Planning Methods
O25 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Industrial Policy
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Summer 2026 brought repeated episodes of extreme heat to large parts of the euro area. This box assesses the implications for euro area construction output. Survey data from the European Commission show that the share of construction firms citing weather as a factor limiting their activity was exceptionally high, reaching a record level in August and remaining elevated in September. Estimates based on country and sector data suggest that such disruption lowers construction output temporarily, with losses in a given month typically made up in the following month. This summer’s weather is estimated to have lowered construction output by around 0.2% in July, 0.3% in August and 0.1% in September. The overall impact is small and should be short-lived, but the effect of extreme summer weather could become more persistent if extreme heat becomes more frequent and longer-lasting.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
L74 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction→Construction
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 9 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3308Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of supervisory effectiveness in credit risk using confidential data from ECB Banking Supervision. The analysis covers 8,106 supervisory measures issued and closed between 2016 and 2025. A central contribution is the construction of a measure level indicator of supervisory effectiveness based on large language model (LLM) analysis of supervisory narratives and closure justifications. The indicator captures whether supervisory measures resulted in full remediation of the underlying deficiencies. Using logistic and duration models, we examine the characteristics of findings, measures, and banks associated with remediation outcomes and remediation speed. The results show that multi-faceted findings are a key driver of supervisory outcomes. Measures related to data, reporting, and IT deficiencies are less likely to achieve full remediation and require longer remediation periods. Measures originating from on-site inspections are associated with higher remediation rates and faster closure. Stronger governance is also associated with more successful remediation outcomes.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The ECB climate change centre (CCC) was established in 2021 to design and steer the ECB’s response to climate-related risks. During its first five years, the centre has evolved from a dedicated coordination hub into a facilitator of the integration of climate and nature-related risks into the ECB’s overall analytical and risk framework. It has thereby supported the institution’s progression from “recognition to integration” in addressing climate and nature-related risks. This article reviews the developments and achievements of the CCC and discusses how it continues to support the climate-related work of the ECB in response to a changing economic, policy and environmental landscape.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 6 November 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 November 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3307Details
- Abstract
- Most empirical models of trend inflation treat it as a latent random walk driven by unobserved shocks, so they cannot say which economic conditions move it. Deep- π*makes the innovations to the trend a possibly nonlinear function of a large number of macroeconomic indicators, estimated with neural networks, so that Shapley values can be used to attribute every movement of the trend to the indicators behind it. Two complementary loss functions define a current trend, which fits inflation today, and a forward-looking trend, which best predicts inflation over the next year. In US data, employment-related variables were the largest contributors to the post-pandemic rise of the current trend. However, the forwardlooking trend rose earlier, with real activity, employment, and money and credit as the main drivers from the start of the pandemic, and peaked eight to twelve months before the current trend. Both trends looked through most of the movements in energy and commodity prices. The contributions of the indicators are nonlinear, with sizeable interactions between them. Re-estimated every month during the surge, the model forecast inflation more accurately than the standard UC-SV model and a random walk, and in early 2021, when professional forecasters expected inflation of 3% or less, the forward-looking trend was already signalling an increase in persistent inflation.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3306Details
- Abstract
- Government spending effectiveness depends critically on how it is financed. Using state dependent SVAR models and local projections on post-war US data, we show that fiscal expansions financed with short-term debt generate significantly larger output multipliers than those financed with long-term debt. This difference mainly stems from private consumption responses: short-term financing crowds in consumption while long-term financing does not. Torationalize this finding, we construct an incomplete markets model in which households invest in short-term and long-term assets. Short assets provide liquidity/safety services; households can (more readily) use them to cover sudden idiosyncratic spending needs. An increase in the supply of these assets, through a short-term debt-financed government expenditure shock, boosts private consumption. We first show this mechanism analytically in a simplified model, and then quantify it in a carefully calibrated New Keynesian model. We find that fiscal multipliers differ substantially across financing modes, with short-term-financed shocks typically exceeding unity while long-term-financed shocks typically fall below unity. We show these differences persist across monetary and fiscal policy regimes, with important implications for optimal debt management and stimulus design.
- JEL Code
- D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3305Details
- Abstract
- The functioning of sovereign bond markets is closely intertwined with repo markets, where investors finance long positions and source bonds for short sales. We show, theoretically and empirically, how conditions in the cash bond market fundamentally shape repo rates: When demand for cash bonds exceeds available supply, arbitrageurs, notably hedge funds, step in to bridge the gap by shorting bonds and borrowing them in the repo market. These arbitrage strategies drive a wedge between monetary policy rates and repo rates, generating “specialness”. To investigate the drivers of investors’ demand for repo contracts, we obtain regulatory data covering the entire universe of repos backed by German sovereign bonds. We identify the ultimate borrowers and lenders of securities and estimate their demand and supply elasticities for the repo market. Supply, dominated by the public sector, accounts for 87% of the aggregate elasticity. Demand, driven mainly by hedge funds, is strongly inelastic: a 10% increase in borrowing costs reduces their borrowing by only 1%. Despite being among the most price-elastic investors in cash bond markets, hedge funds are inelastic in repo markets because their bond borrowing bridges the preferred-habitat demand in the cash bond market: their elasticity is inherited from their cash-market counterparties rather than being a primitive. As a result, repo rate specialness emerges as the equilibrium price reflecting demand pressures in the cash bond market, of which collateral scarcity from central bank purchases is a special case. Consequently, the same cash bond market imbalances affect both the pricing of safe assets and repos, two markets that are of crucial importance for the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3304Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the European Central Bank’s (ECB) perception of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and how this perception is publicly communicated. We construct a perception index based on ECB speeches over the period 1998–2025. Sentiment in references to non-banks is classified by a large language model that we fine-tune on our own hand-labeled dataset constructed for this purpose. The resulting index reveals a predominantly negative and declining perception over time, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. Negative sentiment is primarily associated with concerns related to financial stability and regulatory needs, whereas positive sentiment reflects the role of non-banks in fostering financial innovation and supporting market functioning. The index is made publicly available for future research.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
- 2 November 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 148Details
- Abstract
- High public debt around the globe has revived concerns that it could impede central banks’ ability to control inflation. This article explains how public debt affects the work of central banks. They can still control inflation, but they must take public debt into account when setting rates, because debt affects the level of interest rates consistent with price stability.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3303Details
- Abstract
- We use confidential granular data on euro area sovereign bond holdings to examine the heterogeneous behavior of investor types in response to country-specific geopolitical risk shocks. By distinguishing investor categories and accounting for their bond holding dynamics over time, we provide an empirical assessment of how different bond holders react to geopolitics. The analysis employs country-level geopolitical risk indices of the country of sovereign bonds, and applies local projection methods to estimate the dynamic responses of various investor groups to geopolitical risk shocks. In the case of high-debt euro area countries, i.e. Italy, France, Spain, and Belgium, we examine how geopolitical risks may trigger shifts in investor behavior that, in turn, could pose risks to fiscal sustainability.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 30 October 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 64 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 28 September and 7 October 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the third quarter with similar momentum expected for the fourth quarter. Growth was particularly focused in high-value manufacturing and IT services, while growth in consumer spending was relatively weak. Employment dynamics remained subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode. Growth in selling prices accelerated in the third quarter, reflecting rising costs owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but some slowing was expected in the fourth quarter. Contacts continued to anticipate moderating wage growth, but to a lesser degree than in the previous survey round.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Επιτόκια
| Διευκόλυνση αποδοχής καταθέσεων | 2,50 % |
| Πράξεις κύριας αναχρηματοδότησης (σταθερού επιτοκίου) | 2,65 % |
| Διευκόλυνση οριακής χρηματοδότησης | 2,90 % |
Ρυθμός πληθωρισμού
Περισσότερα για τον πληθωρισμόΣυναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες
| USD | US dollar | 1.1127 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 177.18 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83618 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9234 |
Χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα
Τα καθήκοντά μας Θεσμικό πλαίσιο Επισκόπηση Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας Μέτρα μακροπροληπτικής πολιτικήςΔραστηριότητες αγορών
Πράξεις ανοικτής αγοράς Προγράμματα αγοράς στοιχείων ενεργητικούΔανεισμός τίτλων στο πλαίσιο του PSPPΔΕΝ ΕΧΕΤΕ ΕΙΔΙΚΕΣ ΓΝΩΣΕΙΣ; ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ ΤΙΣ ΕΠΕΞΗΓΗΣΕΙΣ ΜΑΣ
ΜΑΘΕΤΕ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΑ
Τι είναι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα;