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Flavia Ungarelli
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a new approach to estimating the time-varying elasticity of euro area short-term money market rates to changes in excess liquidity. The approach is robust to the endogeneity between the price and volume of central bank liquidity as well as to shifts in the non-linear liquidity demand curve over time. It serves as a useful tool to monitor liquidity conditions in real time and to estimate the level of excess liquidity below which money market rates become sensitive to further reductions in excess liquidity. It currently indicates that this sensitivity remains negligible for both secured and unsecured money market rates in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 10 February 2026
- THE ECB BLOGImport tariffs imposed by other countries tend to lower euro area inflation and weaken growth. However, the sectors most exposed are also the most responsive to interest rate changes. This means that monetary policy can help offset disinflationary pressures and support activity.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.