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Virginia Di Nino

20 December 2017
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
8 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 9, 2019
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Abstract
This box shows that the reversal in gross flows of euro area foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2018 was to a large extent due to developments in flows in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, with Ireland and Belgium contributing to a lesser extent. The episode can be explained by the activity of special purpose entities located in these countries and is also likely to be related to the US corporate tax reform.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
30 January 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2368
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Abstract
In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the fluctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price fluctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to re-gain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers.
JEL Code
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
5 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
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Abstract
Foreign trade zones (FTZs) are designed to promote economic development by favouring international trade, especially trade within global production networks. In FTZs, a substantial share of imports (ranging from 12-17% of total domestic imports) is manufactured and, in part, re-exported. FTZs can break the “chain effect” of tariffs because intermediate goods imported via FTZs enjoy preferential treatment or even duty exemption. This already occurs in the United States and is under consideration in China, where capital controls in FTZs are looser and tax advantages already exist. In the European Union, however, FTZs are mainly used to smooth out customs processes, while an import duty suspension scheme is used to grant favourable treatment to imports of intermediates.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
24 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
This article analyses how the operations of large multinational enterprises (MNEs) affect the external account of the euro area and, in general, financial centres. The increased ease of moving intangible assets, profits and headquarters across borders poses challenges to the current framework of international statistics and economic analysis. First, the article shows how MNE operations are recorded in cross-border statistics, as well as the challenges in measuring such data. Second, the article highlights evidence of the impact that MNEs have on the external account of the euro area – this is most evident in current account balances and foreign direct investment in euro area financial centres, often involving special-purpose entities (SPEs). Third, the article looks at the tendency of financial centres to report current account surpluses that may be tentatively attributed, in part, to the activity of MNEs. Multilateral initiatives could help to improve the transparency of MNE operations and ensure an exchange of information across borders for tax and statistical purposes.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
25 March 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
The US corporate tax reform that entered into force at the beginning of 2018 resulted in foreign direct investment flows reversing for the first time in the euro area. The episode is explained fully by developments in countries which are financial centres, where disinvestment operations were carried out via special purpose entities, initially through transactions in equities and later also in debt securities. Besides the bilateral flows with the United States, which were the first to be affected, foreign direct investment flows to and from offshore centres also reversed, reflecting the complex geographical structure of capital allocation by US multinational enterprises.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
23 September 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020
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Abstract
Adverse shocks induced by containment measures in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) are not limited to the originating country. Foreign trade, while not the sole propagation mechanism, transmits these shocks across economies. In the euro area, the deep integration of firms within regional supply chains ‑ as well as strong final demand linkages ‑ acts as a magnifying mechanism. This article quantifies the propagation and impact of adverse shocks originating in the euro area on euro area GDP, foreign trade and trade balances. It concludes that the transmission to the rest of the euro area of a shock originating in one of the five largest Member States ranges from 15% to 28% of the original shock’s size. The negative spillover effects are most severe for open countries and those most intertwined in regional production network.
JEL Code
F00 : International Economics→General→General
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
17 December 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2506
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Abstract
Beside large capital flows, euro area financial centres feature important and growing trade surpluses. We investigate the composition of their gross trade flows and disentangle (i) domestic and foreign production content that is (ii) directly traded with final absorbing economies or embedded in intermediates that are carried to final destination by partner countries. This accounting exercise uncovers that foreign production transiting through their borders accounts for most of the surpluses of financial centres but also that the net surplus in domestic value added traded directly with final consumers is twice as large as in other euro area economies. MNEs allocate the value created globally to financial centres. They do so through transfer pricing practices which undermine the correct representation of the external position of these countries with a bearing also on the external position of the euro area. Their participation in production chains also appears oddly large. When we replace the official trade statistics with predictions based on the gravity law of trade, the surpluses of main euro area financial centres disappear.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
7 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2546
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Abstract
We revisit the effects of globalisation over the past 50 years in a large sample of advanced and emerging countries. We use accessions to \Globalisation Clubs" (WTO, OECD, EU), financial liberalisation and an instrument for trade openness to study the trade-off between efficiency (proxied by real GDP per capita and TFP) and equity (proxied by the labour share of income and the Gini index of inequality). We find that (i) most of our episodes lead to an increase in trade openness (ii) effects on GDP per capita are mostly positive with some interesting exceptions and (iii) there is little evidence that globalisation shocks lead to more inequality.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration