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Vincent Labhard

Economics

Division

Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance

Current Position

Principal Economist

Fields of interest

Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Other Special Topics

Email

vincent.labhard@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
2003-

Member of Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN), former Member of Steering Committee of EABCN

1999-

Referee for Focus on European Economic Integration, Empirical Economics, Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, Applied Economics Quarterly, Economic and Social Research Council, Empirical Economics, Focus on European Economic Integration, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, Bank of England Working Paper Series, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

Education
1995-1998

PhD (International Economics / International Relations), Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland

1992-1995

Diploma of advanced studies (International Economics / International Relations), Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland

1987-1992

Diploma (Economics), University of Hamburg, Germany

Professional experience
2020-

Principal Economist - Division Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2017-2019

Senior Economist - Division Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2014-2017

Senior Economist - Division Country Surveillance, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2006-2014

Senior Economist - Division EU Countries, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2004-2006

Economist - Conjunctural Assessment and Projections Division, Bank of England, London, UK

1999-2004

Economist - International Economic Analysis Division, Bank of England, London, UK

1999-1999

Economist - Economic Analysis Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Switzerland

Teaching experience
1993-1997

Macroeconomics/International Macroeconomics - Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland

1992-1992

Computer Science - Universität Hamburg, Germany

31 July 2004
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 19
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses trends in sectoral specialisation in the EU and concludes the following: 1) The European production structure appears more homogenous than that of the US. 2) While sectoral specialisation has shown a slight increase in some smaller euro area countries towards the end-1990s, it is too early to detect any potential impact of EMU. 3) Despite some changes in sectoral composition, the business cycles of euro area countries became more synchronised over the 1990s, which may be seen as reassuring from the point of view of the single monetary policy. 4) Sectoral re-allocation accounts for as much as 50% of the increase in labour productivity growth in business sector services in the euro area. 5) The slowdown of European labour productivity growth relative to the US since the mid-1990s is explained by a stronger performance in the US wholesale and retail trade, financial intermediation and high-tech manufacturing sectors.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
13 May 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1051
Details
Abstract
Factor based forecasting has been at the forefront of developments in the macroeconometric forecasting literature in the recent past. Despite the flurry of activity in the area, a number of specification issues such as the choice of the number of factors in the forecasting regression, the benefits of combining factor-based forecasts and the choice of the dataset from which to extract the factors remain partly unaddressed. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical investigation of these issues using data for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries, and the UK.
JEL Code
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
3 November 2014
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 156
Details
Abstract
This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future.
JEL Code
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O49 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Other
29 June 2020
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 244
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts across the euro area and European Union (EU) economies. It also compares how these economies fare relative to other major economies such as that of the United States. The paper concludes that: (i) there is significant country heterogeneity across the EU in terms of the adoption of digital technologies, and most EU countries are falling behind competitors, particularly the United States; (ii) digitalisation is affecting the economy through a number of channels, including productivity, employment, competition and prices; (iii) digitalisation raises productivity and lowers prices, similarly to other supply/technology shocks; (iv) this has implications for monetary policy and its transmission; and (v) structural and other policies may need to be adapted for the euro area and EU countries to fully reap the potential gains from digitalisation, while maintaining inclusiveness.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
2019
National Bank of Romania Occasional Paper
  • Gălățescu, A.A. and Labhard, V.
2018
ECB Occasional Paper
  • Labhard, V. and members of the Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB
2012
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
  • Cunningham, A., Eklund, J., Jeffery, C., Labhard, V. and Kapetanios, G.
2011
Journal of Forecasting
  • Caggiano, G., Kapetanios, G. and Labhard, V.
2008
Economic Modelling
  • Kapetanios, G., Labhard, V. and Price, S.
2008
Journal of Business and Economics Statistics
  • Kapetanios, G., Labhard, V. and Price, S.
2006
Economics Letters
  • Kapetanios, G., Labhard, V. and Price, S.
2006
Bank of England Working Paper
  • Labhard, V. and Sawicki, M.
2005
Bank of England Working Paper
  • Labhard, V., Sterne, G. and Young, C.
2003
Bank of England Working Paper
  • Labhard, V.
1996
American Economic Review
  • Labhard, V. and Wyplosz, C.