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Lara Vivian

Economics

Division

Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance

Current Position

Economist

Fields of interest

Labour Economics,Public Economics

Email

Lara.Vivian@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2014-2018

PhD in Economics, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France

2013-2014

MA in Econometrics, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France

2012-2013

MA in Economics, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France

2009-2012

BA in Economics, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy

Professional experience
2019-

Economist -Supply Side, Labor and Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2018-2019

PhD Trainee -Supply Side, Labor and Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2019

External Consultant -Structural Policy Analysis Division, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Awards
2014

Best student of the M2 Econometrics, Aix-Marseille School of Economics

2014

Best master student of the faculty of economics, Ville d'Aix-en-Provence

Teaching experience
2016-2018

TA, Econometrics -Aix-Marseille Université, France

2016-2018

TA, Statistics -Aix-Marseille Université, France

2015-2016

TA, Mathematics -Aix-Marseille Université, France

18 June 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box examines regional developments in labour input within the euro area since the peak in economic activity before the global financial crisis (GFC). It reveals that the increase in total hours worked during the recovery that followed the GFC was greater than the decline during the recession only for regions at the top of the GDP per capita distribution. Overall, the evolution of total hours worked in the euro area between 2007 and 2018 was quite heterogeneous across regions, with hours worked being more insulated from the fall in GDP in richer regions during the recession period and poorer regions not converging with their richer counterparts during the recovery that followed. The smaller decline in total hours worked in the richer regions during the downturn and the similar growth rates observed during the recovery are the main sources of the regional heterogeneity in the time pattern of total hours worked, and can be attributed to changes in the employment rate, to the decline in average hours worked during the recession period, and to the stability of regional differences in population growth during both periods, with the latter factor being consistent with labour migrating from poorer to richer regions.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
29 June 2020
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 244
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts across the euro area and European Union (EU) economies. It also compares how these economies fare relative to other major economies such as that of the United States. The paper concludes that: (i) there is significant country heterogeneity across the EU in terms of the adoption of digital technologies, and most EU countries are falling behind competitors, particularly the United States; (ii) digitalisation is affecting the economy through a number of channels, including productivity, employment, competition and prices; (iii) digitalisation raises productivity and lowers prices, similarly to other supply/technology shocks; (iv) this has implications for monetary policy and its transmission; and (v) structural and other policies may need to be adapted for the euro area and EU countries to fully reap the potential gains from digitalisation, while maintaining inclusiveness.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation – the diffusion of digital technologies, leading to a digital economy is “virtually everywhere”. It transforms economies, making it an important issue from a central banking perspective. Some of the key effects of digitalisation relevant to monetary policy relate to output and productivity, labour markets, wages and prices. This article summarises and updates the evidence on the euro area and the EU digital economy. This article also takes a closer look at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the digital economy, both in the short term and beyond.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
6 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This article analyses labour market developments in the euro area since the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Total hours worked declined sharply in the first half of 2020. However, employment and unemployment reacted only weakly to the marked fall in GDP, as many workers remained employed under job retention schemes. These contributed to a fall in compensation per employee and an increase in compensation per hour worked. Participation in the labour force also dropped substantially, more than offsetting the increase observed since mid-2013. An analysis of the decomposition of labour market shocks via a sign-restricted structural vector-autoregressive model shows that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the decline in total hours worked. High-frequency indicators on hiring rates and job postings have declined sharply since April and continue to indicate a depressed level of labour demand. However, employment and hours worked recovered somewhat in the third quarter. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a heterogeneous impact on employment across euro area countries and there is the risk of a further increase in geographic divergence in euro area labour markets. Temporary employees, the young and workers with low levels of education were the most affected, while teleworking may have played a role in supporting employment and hours worked for some workers in certain sectors. Activity sectors such as trade and transport and recreation activities have been disproportionately affected, with the largest decreases in hours worked. However, it is too early to assess the extent to which the pandemic will affect the need for labour reallocation across sectors, tasks and occupations.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
2016
IZA Journal of European Labor Studies
  • Checchi, D., García-Peñalosa C., Vivian L.
2019
VoxEU
  • Labhard V., McAdam P., Petroulakis F., Vivian L.