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Pedro Neves

Economics

Division

Business Cycle Analysis

Current Position

Research Analyst

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Economic Growth

Email

pedro.neves@ecb.europa.eu

11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Last updated on 12 January 2024
Details
Abstract
The disposable income of households, as measured in the national accounts, benefited from rising labour income and continued strong growth in non-labour income in the first half of 2023. But not all components of income generate a positive cash flow for households. This mainly concerns non-labour income (excluding net fiscal income), which benefited from the exceptionally strong growth in gross operating surplus and the strong increase in financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM). These two components do not generate positive cash flow for households and may therefore not be reflected in households’ income perceptions, which recently lagged behind the positive income developments as measured in the national accounts. One indicator of growth in household income that comes closer to household perceptions is compensation of employees. Looking ahead, the negative assessment by households of recent real income growth appears to be consistent with the muted outlook for private consumption.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box first analyses a bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations across sectors derived from the European Commission’s business survey. It then assesses the role of demand-side and supply-side drivers of the index, using disaggregated data on expectations and limits to production from the same survey. The bottom-up composite index of business activity expectations appears to be a good leading indicator of real GDP. According to the index, business activity expectations have deteriorated since mid-2022, with the decline occurring earlier than the weakening of economic growth in the euro area. An empirical model is then used to assess the impact of drivers on business activity expectations. The model captures historical business cycle patterns. It shows that recent trends in business activity expectations were driven by deteriorating demand, partly offset by improved supply. A granular model-based decomposition suggests that tightening financial conditions and flagging product demand were the main drag on business activity expectations across sectors in the third quarter of 2023.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
Details
Abstract
Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation can be an important determinant of their economic behaviour and inflation expectations. In this context, in June 2023 the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey asked consumers what they believed was the main factor driving changes in the general level of prices for goods and services in their country over the past 12 months. Most consumers believe that price changes over the past 12 months were mainly driven by input cost factors, with corporate profits ranked second and wages third. Consumers responding that other input costs are the main driver expect inflation to be less persistent. Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation should continue to be monitored. As the various drivers can influence inflation persistence differently, profits or wages being perceived as more prominent drivers in the future could have implications for consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations.
JEL Code
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box analyses sentiment indices of profits and investment that have been compiled from a new data source, namely earnings call transcripts of listed euro area firms. It shows that these data series have correlated well with standard investment and profit series over the past two decades. It also demonstrates that profit sentiment has improved since the third quarter of 2021, while corporate investment sentiment rose slightly further in the second quarter of 2023, despite tightening financing conditions. At the sectoral level, profit sentiment in the services and utilities sectors has held up better than it has in the manufacturing sector since last year. In addition, an indicator of financial risk extracted from the earnings call data shows that firms are highly concerned about rising financing costs and perceive tighter financing conditions as a clear risk.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
Details
Abstract
Euro area motor vehicle output fell by approximately one-third between June 2018 and July 2022. This can be explained by factors associated with the more stringent emissions tests implemented in the EU, the EU regulation on carbon dioxide emissions, the transition towards electric vehicles, supply chain disruptions, the rise in energy costs and, more recently, the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine. Euro area car exports also decreased at the same time. The transition to greener motor vehicles and the future evolution of supply bottlenecks are key factors shaping the outlook for euro area car production and exports in the coming years.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 275
Details
Abstract
This report discusses the role of the European Union’s full employment objective in the conduct of the ECB’s monetary policy. It first reviews a range of indicators of full employment, highlights the heterogeneity of labour market outcomes within different groups in the population and across countries, and documents the flatness of the Phillips curve in the euro area. In this context, it is stressed that labour market structures and trend labour market outcomes are primarily determined by national economic policies. The report then recalls that, in many circumstances, inflation and employment move together and pursuing price stability is conducive to supporting employment. However, in response to economic shocks that give rise to a temporary trade-off between employment and inflation stabilisation, the ECB’s medium-term orientation in pursuing price stability is shown to provide flexibility to contribute to the achievement of the EU’s full employment objective. Regarding the conduct of monetary policy in a low interest rate environment, model-based simulations suggest that history-dependent policy approaches − which have been proposed to overcome lasting shortfalls of inflation due to the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates by a more persistent policy response to disinflationary shocks − can help to bring employment closer to full employment, even though their effectiveness depends on the strength of the postulated expectations channels. Finally, the importance of employment income and wealth inequality in the transmission of monetary policy strengthens the case for more persistent or forceful easing policies (in pursuit of price stability) when interest rates are constrained by their lower bound.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 266
Details
Abstract
The digitalisation workstream report analyses the degree of digital adoption across the euro area and EU countries and the implications of digitalisation for measurement, productivity, labour markets and inflation, as well as more recent developments during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and their implications. Analysis of these key issues and variables is aimed at improving our understanding of the implications of digitalisation for monetary policy and its transmission. The degree of digital adoption differs across the euro area/EU, implying heterogeneous impacts, with most EU economies currently lagging behind the United States and Japan. Rising digitalisation has rendered price measurement more challenging, owing to, among other things, faster changes in products and product quality, but also new ways of price setting, e.g. dynamic or customised pricing, and services that were previously payable but are now “free”. Despite the spread of digital technologies, aggregate productivity growth has decreased in most advanced economies since the 1970s. However, it is likely that without the spread of digital technologies the productivity slowdown would have been even more pronounced, and the recent acceleration in digitalisation is likely to boost future productivity gains from digitalisation. Digitalisation has spurred greater automation, with temporary labour market disruptions, albeit unevenly across sectors. The long-run employment effects of digitalisation can be benign, but its effects on wages and labour share depend on the structure of the economy and its labour market institutions. The pandemic has accelerated the use of teleworking: roughly every third job in the euro area/EU is teleworkable, although there are differences across countries. ...
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
23 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box documents the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on the euro area labour market for men and women. Based on available data up to the end of 2020, the COVID-19 crisis led to a decline in the labour force, a fall in employment and an increase in unemployment, with different developments for men and women across time. Preliminary evidence suggests that workers from both genders benefited from the widespread use of job retention schemes. Still, the decline in average hours worked was somewhat more pronounced for men than for women. The reasons behind the decline in average hours worked differed across gender, with the decline in average hours worked for men driven in part by a decrease in contractual hours and for both men and women by ad hoc reductions in hours worked. This, in turn, increased the gap between the actual hours worked and the contractual hours of work. These developments can also be attributed to the asymmetric sectoral impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, the available evidence suggests that both men and women were strongly affected by the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the euro area labour market.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure