- 16 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- This box updates the analysis published in April 2022 that reviewed the Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections published since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The accuracy of short-term inflation projections made by Eurosystem and ECB staff deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, projection accuracy improved in the final quarter of 2022. Errors related to conditioning assumptions for energy commodity prices and the pass-through of those prices to consumer prices (complicated by the uncertain impact of fiscal policy measures) continue to account for a significant albeit declining share of the total staff inflation projection errors. The remaining errors are likely to relate to the impact of global supply chain bottlenecks and reopening effects following the pandemic. In addition, the exceptional size of commodity price shocks may have led to a much faster pass-through, while the high inflationary environment may have enabled easier repricing and required faster resetting of prices than had been observed in the past. In comparative terms, other international institutions and private forecasters have under-predicted short-term euro area inflation to a similar extent. Eurosystem and ECB staff are continuing to re-evaluate their models to further improve the accuracy of their projection techniques and to provide additional analyses that can inform projections in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
- 28 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- This box reviews the large errors made throughout 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 in Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections. Errors in conditioning assumptions, notably due to unexpected energy price increases, are estimated to explain around three-quarters of these errors. Such errors are inherent to the nature of Eurosystem and ECB staff projections, which are conditioned on a set of assumptions, mainly stemming from market-based information including on energy prices. Supply bottlenecks being more persistent than expected, the recovery in economic activity being swifter than predicted, and the transmission of the energy price shock possibly being stronger than usual also played a role, and these factors likely explain a large portion of the errors in projecting HICP inflation excluding energy and food. A comparison with peer institutions shows that large inflation errors were widespread, not only across forecasters but also across economies. This emphasises the predominant role of global factors in a context of steep commodity price increases, especially for energy. While Eurosystem and ECB staff take all available information into account and continuously refine the models used in their projections, inflation developments are likely to remain challenging to forecast in the near term due to the volatile price movements in energy commodities, the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and reopening effects following the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. In this context, complementing the Eurosystem and ECB staff baseline projections with scenario and sensitivity analyses help provide a richer representation of the inflation outlook.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies