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Ernest Dautović

Universal & Diversified Institutions

Division

Universal & Diversified Inst. 3

Current Position

Supervisor

Fields of interest

Financial Economics

Email

Ernest.Dautovic@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2019

PhD in Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

2014

Doctoral School in Economics "Gerzensee", Swiss National Bank

2009

M.Sc. in Statistics & Economics, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Italy

2009

M.Sc. International Economics & Finance, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands

2006

B.Sc. in Statistics & Finance, University of Bologna, Italy

Professional experience
2021-

ECB - SSM - DG Universal & Diversified Institutions

2020-2021

ECB – DG Macroprudential Policy & Financial Stability

2020

ECB - SSM Chair Analytical Research Team

2017-2020

ECB – SSM - Crisis Management

2016-2017

European Systemic Risk Board

2015-2017

The World Bank Research Department, Private Sector Development

2016-2017

The World Bank - Europe & Central Asia Chief Economist

2015

The World Bank - Trade & Competitiveness Global Practice

2011-2012

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management

2012

European Central Bank - DG International & European Relations

Awards
2016

Nesta and Kauffman Foundation Grant for research on innovative enterprises

2015

World Bank i2i and UK Dpt. for International Development Impact Evaluation Research Grant

2009

Research grant for the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission, FINNOV

Teaching experience
2013-2017

Teaching Assistant - University of Lausanne

2010-2011

Teaching Assistant - University of Bologna

2010

Teaching Assistant - University of East London

28 June 2021
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 13
Details
Abstract
This article studies the impact of the ECB’s dividend recommendations on banks’ lending and loss-absorption capacity during the COVID-19 crisis. It finds that the policy has been effective in mitigating the potential procyclical adjustment of banks. Banks that did not distribute previously planned dividends increased their lending by around 2.4% and their provisions by approximately 5.5%, thus strengthening their capacity to absorb losses. Notably, the recommendations appear to have mitigated the procyclical behaviour of banks closer to the threshold for automatic restrictions on distributions. Overall, the recommendations were successful in conserving capital and helping the banking system support the real economy and facilitate the recognition of future losses.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
24 July 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2449
Details
Abstract
The paper evaluates the impact of a phased-in introduction of capital requirements on equity, risk-taking, and probability of default for a sample of European systemically important banks. Contrary to the case of a one-off introduction of capital requirements, this study does not find evidence of deleveraging through asset sales. A phased-in tightening promotes adjustment to lower leverage via an increase in equity thereby improving resilience and loss absorption capacity. The higher resilience comes at the cost of a portfolio reallocation towards riskier assets. Consistently with models on agency costs and gambling for resurrection, the risk-taking is driven by large and less profitable banks. The net impact on bank probabilities of default is positive albeit statistically insignificant, suggesting that risk-taking may crowd-out solvency.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
16 April 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2391
Details
Abstract
Innovative firms with good ideas may still struggle to fine-tune them to the stage where they can attract outside funding. We conduct a five-country randomized experiment that tests the impact of an investment readiness program. Firms then pitched their ideas to independent judges. The program resulted in a 0.3 standard deviation increase in the investment readiness score. Two years later, the average impacts on firm investment outcomes are positive, but small in magnitude, and not statistically significant. Larger and statistically significant impacts on receiving outside funding occur for smaller firms, and for firms with lower likelihoods of otherwise being funded.
JEL Code
L26 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Entrepreneurship
M2 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Economics
M13 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Administration→New Firms, Startups
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
2 December 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2333
Details
Abstract
The paper evaluates the impact of the Chinese minimum wage policy on consumption of low-wage households for the period 2002-2009. Using a representative household panel, we find that the consumption response to minimum wage income shock is increasing in the minimum wage share of household income and that poorer households fully consume their additional income. The large marginal propensity to consume is driven by households with at least one child, while childless poor households save two thirds of a minimum wage hike. The expenditure increase is concentrated in health care and education with potentially long-lasting benefits to household welfare.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
C26 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
18 August 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1719
Details
Abstract
The rapid increase in intra-industry trade (IIT) between the EU15 and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union indicates a structural change in the nature of trade in CESEE and a new process of transition and real convergence to the EU. Using a product-level trade flows database and employing linear and non-linear panel data specifications, this paper assesses the determinants of intra-industry trade between the EU15 as the main trading block and CESEE, which are further divided into the
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
2021
Review of Economics and Statistics
  • Ana Paula Cusolito, Ernest Dautovic, David McKenzie
2018
Constitutional Political Economy
  • Ernest Dautovic
2017
Economics of Transition
  • Ernest Dautovic, Lucia Orszaghova, Willem Schudel
2017
International Economics and Economic Policy
  • Ernest Dautovic
2019
ESRB Working Paper Series n.91
  • Ernest Dautovic
2018
Toward a New Social Contract: Taking on Distributional Tensions in Europe and Central Asia
  • Maurizio Bussolo et al.
2017
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12057
  • Ernest Dautovic, Harald Hau, Yi Huang