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Diana Bonfim

Research

Division: Financial Research
Current Position: Adviser
Fields of interest: Financial Economics
Email: diana.bonfim@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Other current responsibilities: 2023-2026
Co-coordinator ChaMP research network

ECB publications

10 November 2025

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3146

Household borrowing and monetary policy transmission: post-pandemic insights from nine European credit registers

English

Abstract: We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the passthrough of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets.
JEL Code: E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
Network: Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)

6 November 2025

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 377

Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks

English

Abstract: This paper serves as a reference guide on the effects of “standard” monetary policy shocks on output and prices, based on harmonised simulation exercises conducted across models of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), meta-analysis of existing empirical literature for the euro area, and selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis starts by comparing the effects of monetary policy shocks as estimated by structural, semi-structural and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and identifying the main sources of heterogeneity – most notably via the specification of monetary policy rules, the slope of the Phillips curve, the role of real rigidities and financial frictions, and the expectations formation mechanism. While DSGE models tend to produce sharper responses, semi-structural models often reveal more gradual and persistent effects, in line with backward-looking empirical models. The second chapter presents a meta-analysis of estimated effects based on the empirical literature, which are broadly consistent with the results obtained from the ESCB models, although differences might appear when correcting for publication bias, or accounting for different identification frameworks. The study is then complemented by selected works on heterogeneity and non-linearities in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by empirical models. Our analysis in the final chapter shows that monetary policy transmission is heterogeneous across countries, sectors, demand components, and time. It also reveals important non-linear and state-dependent dynamics: in high-inflation periods, greater price and wage flexibility amplifies the response of inflation while dampening output effects, thereby lowering the sacrifice ratio. [...]
JEL Code: C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
D58 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

30 June 2025

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372

Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication

English

Abstract: This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.

14 August 2024

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2974

Corporate reorganization and the reallocation of labor in bankruptcy

English

Abstract: We analyze how corporate reorganization and liquidation change labor reallocation during bankruptcy using randomized judge assignments and linked Portuguese employer-employee and firm data. Reorganization reduces the negative effect of bankruptcy on employee earnings, even with most workers leaving reorganized firms. We examine plausible mechanisms and find evidence that the retention of general skills and improved job-match quality contribute meaningfully to this effect. The average cost of labor misallocation caused by reorganization is small. However, for some workers in the least productive filers, this cost can be large, outweighing the effect on earnings.
JEL Code: G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
K39 : Law and Economics→Other Substantive Areas of Law→Other

11 November 2022

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2745

The augmented bank balance-sheet channel of monetary policy

English

Abstract: This paper studies how banks’ balance sheets and funding costs interact in the transmission of monetary-policy rates to banks’ credit supply to firms. To do so, we use credit registry data from Germany and Portugal together with the European Central Bank’s policy-rate cuts in mid-2014. The pass-through of the rate cuts to banks’ funding costs differs across the euro-area currency union because deposit rates vary in their distance to the zero lower bound (ZLB). When the distance is shorter, banks’ financing constraints matter less for the supply of credit and there is more risk taking. To rationalize these findings, we provide a simple model of an augmented bank balance-sheet channel where in addition to costly external financing, there is screening of borrowers and a ZLB on retail deposit rates. An impaired pass-through of monetary policy to banks’ funding costs reduces their ability to lever up and weakens their lending standards.
JEL Code: E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages