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Letizia Montinari

24 January 2017
In this paper we investigate how income growth rates in one country are affected by growth rates in partner countries, testing for the importance of pairwise country links as well as characteristics of the receiving country (trade and financial openness, exchange rate regime, fiscal variables). We find that trade integration fosters the spill-over of business cycles, both bilaterally and as a country characteristic (trade openness). Results for financial integration are mixed; financial links as pairwise country characteristic are either insignificant or negatively signed (indicating a dampening of cross country spill-overs), but financial openness as characteristic of the receiving country amplifies spill-overs. We find no evidence for a role of the exchange rate regime. Finally, we find that higher government spending and debt reduces countries
JEL Code
F1 : International Economics→Trade
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
18 December 2013
In this paper, I investigate the welfare effects that developed countries experience after productivity improvements occur in their emerging trading partners, using a two-country model featuring pro-competitive effects of trade and asymmetries in technology. I model the technology advantage of the developed country, assuming that the productivity distribution its firms draw from stochastically dominates that of the emerging country. Calibrated to match aggregate and firm level statistics of the US economy, the model predicts that the country with better technology has a higher productivity cut-off level, higher average productivity and higher welfare. Productivity improvements in the emerging country generate selection and raise welfare everywhere, with both the selection effect and the positive welfare effect being stronger in the emerging country. Finally, trade liberalization is associated with more selection and higher welfare in both the developed and the emerging country.
JEL Code
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
I31 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty→General Welfare, Well-Being?