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Isabella Moder

International & European Relations

Division

External Developments

Current Position

Senior Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics

Email

Isabella.Moder@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2016-2020

Doctorate in Economics (summa cum laude), Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Germany

2009-2011

MA in Economics, University of St.Gallen, Switzerland

2005-2009

BA in International Affairs, University of St.Gallen, Switzerland

Professional experience
2020-

Senior Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2015-2019

Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2018-2018

Advisor - ECB Representative Office at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., United States

2012-2015

Economist - Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna, Austria

2011-2012

Portfolio Manager - Kommunalkredit, Vienna, Austria

20 August 2015
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 164
Details
Abstract
This paper reviews financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Iceland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. The paper has been prepared by an expert group of staff from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) in which experts from EU candidate and potential candidate country central banks also participated. The paper finds that near-term challenges to financial stability primarily relate to credit risks from the generally weak economic dynamics in combination with already high non-performing loan burdens in many banking systems, especially in the Western Balkans. In the medium-term, challenges to financial stability stem from indirect market risks to banks related to foreign currency lending as well as lingering exposures to funding risks, with Western Balkan economies again appearing as relatively more vulnerable. Looking further ahead, the paper highlights that the magnitude of the challenge to reach a
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
15 May 2017
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 190
Details
Abstract
This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. The paper focuses on the period since 2014 and on the banking sectors that dominate financial systems in this group of countries. It identifies two main near-term challenges applying to most of them. The first relates to credit risk, which remains substantial despite some progress in reducing the burden of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets in the period under review. However, progress so far is limited, partly owing to structural impediments. The second relates to the still high share of foreign exchange denominated loans and deposits, which poses an indirect credit risk in the case of lending to unhedged borrowers and impairs the monetary transmission channel. In addition, profitability is worth monitoring going forward, as it remains subdued in many countries given high provisioning needs and a lacklustre credit growth and low interest rate environment. These concerns are generally met with a solid shock-absorbing capacity, as exemplified by robust capital and liquidity buffers.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
23 August 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2095
Details
Abstract
This paper is the first to comprehensively assess the impact of the euro area’s non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe. By employing bilateral BVAR models, I am able to estimate the response of output and prices for each country, as well as to shed more light on potential shock transmission channels. The results suggest that the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures have had pronounced price effects on all south-eastern European countries, and output effects on approximately half of them. While I also find exports to be a relevant transmission channel in most cases, the interbank market rate responds significantly only in a few cases as the region was subject to significant cross-border bank deleveraging after the crisis. Furthermore, the results suggest that the exchange rate regime does not play a role in determining the sign and magnitude of price level and output responses. This is in line with the absence of distinct exchange rate responses in the model output, suggesting that exchange rates did not act as buffers for spillovers of euro area non-standard monetary policy measures on south-eastern Europe.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
27 September 2017
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 197
Details
Abstract
Limited access to finance is one of the main obstacles for firms located in the Western Balkans and hampers economic growth as well as the transmission of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to undertake an in-depth analysis of access to finance constraints in this region, where countries as EU candidates or potential candidates have a prospect of joining the European Union. Besides touching upon macroeconomic and banking sector indicators that influence access to finance, this paper empirically assesses firm-level factors that determine whether a firm operating in the Western Balkans is credit-constrained, both in actual and perceived terms. In line with the literature, the results suggest that size, age, location, being audited, having outstanding loans and expectations about future performance matter for actual credit availability. The econometric analysis is complemented by a review of the Western Balkan countries’ Economic Reform Programmes, which indicate that financing constraints are tackled by most national authorities through specific policy measures, mostly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
16 September 2019
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 233
Details
Abstract
This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. The paper mainly focuses on the period since 2016 (unless the analysis requires a longer time span) and on the banking sectors that dominate financial systems in this group of countries. For the Western Balkans, the paper analyses recent trends in financial intermediation, as well as the two main challenges that have been identified in the past. Asset quality continues to improve, but the share of non-performing loans is still high in some countries, while regulatory, legal and tax impediments are still to be resolved in most cases. High unofficial euroisation is a source of indirect credit risk for countries with their own national legal tender, which calls for continued efforts to promote the use of domestic currencies in the financial system. At the same time, banking systems seem less prone to financial stress from maturity mismatches than certain EU peers. These risks are met with a solid shock-absorbing capacity in the Western Balkans, as exemplified by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Turkey experienced a period of heightened financial stress during 2018 and, while its banking system appears to have sufficient buffers to absorb shocks overall, significant forex borrowing of corporates and high rollover needs of banks in foreign exchange on the wholesale market constitute considerable financial stability risks.
JEL Code
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
26 May 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2416
Details
Abstract
After a first phasing out of the ECB’s net asset purchases at end-2018, the question of how a future tightening of the ECB’s monetary policy may affect countries located in the vicinity of the euro area has gained prominence, but has been left largely unanswered so far. Our paper aims to close this gap for the CESEE region by employing shock-specific conditional forecasts, a methodology that has been little exploited in this context. Besides demonstrating the usefulness of our framework, we obtain three key findings characterising the spillovers of ECB monetary policy to CESEE economies: first, a euro area monetary tightening does trigger sizeable spillovers to the CESEE region. Second, we show that in the context of a demand shock-induced monetary tightening, which is more realistic than the usual approach taken in the literature, CESEE countries’ output and prices actually respond positively. Third, spillovers on output and prices in CESEE countries are heterogeneous, and depend on the trajectory of euro area tightening.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
This box aims to assess the long-term implications of past crises for the global economy’s potential output and to discuss potential scarring effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Starting with a review of past crises and the transmission channels through which potential output is affected, it concludes that the pandemic could leave scarring effects on the global economy, with labour supply likely to be initially hit the most. However, effects on the capital stock are potentially more relevant over the medium to long term.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
2019
International Journal of Central Banking
Spillovers from the ECB's Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures on Southeastern Europe
  • Moder, I.
2016
Focus on European Economic Integration
Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE
  • Feldkircher, M., Huber, F. and Moder, I.
2015
Economic Notes
Towards a New Normal: How Different Paths of US Monetary Policy Affect the World Economy
  • Feldkircher, M., Huber, F. and Moder, I.
2015
Focus on European Economic Integration
Business cycle synchronization between the Western Balkans and the European Union
  • Hildebrandt, A. and Moder, I.
2014
Focus on European Economic Integration
Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies
  • Feldkircher, M., Gruber, T. and Moder, I.
2021
VoxEU
  • Martín Fuentes N. and Moder I.
2015
Project Syndicate
  • Feldkircher M. and Huber F. and Moder I.