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Óscar Arce

Economics

Current Position

Director General

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

oscar.arce@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
2022-

Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

Education
2000-2005

PhD in Economics. London School of Economics (London, UK)

1998-2002

PhD in Business Economics. Universidad de Burgos (Burgos, Spain)

1999-2000

MSc Economics, University College London (London, UK)

1991-1996

Bachelor in Economics and Business Administration, University of Valladolid (Valladolid, Spain)

Professional experience
2022-

Director General Economics, European Central Bank

2018-2022

Director General Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España

2015-2018

Associate Director General for Economics and Research, at the DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España

2015-2015

Director of the Monetary and Financial Studies Dpt., at the DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España

2012-2015

Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Division, at the Department of Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Banco de España

2009-2012

Director of the Research and Statistics Department - Spanish Securities Market Commission - CNMV

2008-2009

Deputy Director General, Economic Policy Department, Economic Bureau of the Spanish Prime Minister

2004-2008

Senior Economist, Research Department, Banco de España

Awards
2000

Banco de España Scholarship for Graduate Studies Abroad

Teaching experience
2014-2014

Adjunct professor (part-time), University of Navarra, Master on Banking

2011-2012

Adjunct professor (part-time), IE Business School

2005-2007

Adjunct professor (part-time), ICADE (Madrid)

2003-2004

London School of Economics, Dpt. of Economics: Temporary lecturer (macroeconomics, graduate)

2001-2003

London School of Economics, Dpt. of Economics: class teacher (macro & micro undergraduate)

1997-1999

Lecturer, macro, micro, international economics. Dpt. of Applied Economics, University of Burgos

28 February 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 343
Details
Abstract
This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and comparing global inflation dynamics across the major world economic areas, including US, euro area, Canada, UK, and Japan. The paper makes four main contributions. First, it estimates the model using quarterly data from the euro area covering the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2023. Second, it conducts an empirical assessment of how euro area price inflation responds to various exogenous shocks. This includes evaluating how shock transmission evolved during the pandemic and comparing it with experience in the United States. Third, the model decomposes the drivers of wage growth and price inflation in the post-pandemic period. It emphasises the transmission channels and the respective roles of supply and demand forces that have contributed to the recent inflationary surge. Notably, it identifies the impact of labour market tightness, productivity, global supply chain disruptions and energy and food price shocks. Finally, the model generates conditional projections based on these exogenous shocks, enabling a more robust cross-check of inflation forecasts during times of significant global economic disturbances.
JEL Code
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
7 June 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
30 March 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
24 February 2023
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Related
25 August 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1942
Details
Abstract
We provide a general equilibrium framework for analyzing the effects of supply and demand side policies, and the potential synergies between them, in an asymmetric monetary union that faces a liquidity trap and a slow deleveraging process in its
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
D42 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Monopoly
Network
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
2023
Economic Policy
Bank lending policies and monetary policy: Some lessons from the negative interest era
  • O. Arce, M. García-Posada, S. Mayordomo and S. Ongena
2022
International Journal of Central Banking
  • J. Andrés, O. Arce, J. Fernández-Villaverde and S. Hurtado.
2021
Review of Finance
  • O. Arce, S. Mayordomo and R. Gimeno
2021
Working Paper Banco de Espana
  • J. Andrés, O. Arce and P. Burriel
2020
Review of Economic Dynamics
  • O. Arce, J. Andrés, C. Thomas and D. Thaler
2020
Journal of Monetary Econmics
  • O Arce, G. Nuño, D. Thaler and C. Thomas
2017
Journal of Monetary Economics
Structural Reforms in a Debt Overhang
  • O. Arce, J. Andrés and C. Thomas
2016
European Financial Management
  • O. Arce and S. Mayordomo
2016
International Journal of Central Banking
  • O. Arce, S. Hurtado and C. Thomas
2013
European Economic Review
  • O. Arce, J. M. Campa and A. Gavilán
2013
Journal of International Money and Finance
  • O. Arce, S. Mayordomo and I. Peña
2013
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  • J. Andrés, O. Arce and C. Thomas
2012
Economic Journal
  • O. Arce and J. Andrés
2011
The American Economic Journal: Marcroeconomics
  • O. Arce and J. David López-Salido
2009
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
  • O. Arce