Δεν διατίθεται στα ελληνικά.
Laura Moretti
- 6 July 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 390Details
- Abstract
- This Occasional Paper reviews evidence from the ChaMP Research Network on the transmission of monetary policy to households in the euro area – an area of monetary policy that has attracted less attention among researchers. It highlights thecentral role of banks and non-bank intermediaries in shaping how policy affects borrowing, saving and consumption. Despite the overall effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area, the pass-through of policy rates to household borrowingcosts is incomplete and heterogeneous, reflecting differences in funding structures, market power and institutional settings.A key insight is that transmission depends on household heterogeneity. Differences in balance sheets, credit access and housing market characteristics produce uneven effects across income, age and wealth groups, with important implications foraggregate demand and distributional consequences. Another key finding is that several components of consumption respond more rapidly to changes in interest rates than previously thought, especially in high-debt, variable-rate environments.Overall, the findings point to the need for an integrated, system-wide perspective that accounts for multiple aspects of financial structure and heterogeneity when assessing monetary policy transmission. ChaMP research also highlights the valueof readily available granular data, as many novel findings stem from a major coordinated effort to use new data on households obtained from national credit registers, as well as novel granular data on household expenditure.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 10 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3146Details
- Abstract
- We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the passthrough of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 5 May 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2400Details
- Abstract
- We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the reduced-form Phillips Curve to the (semi-)structural models used at the ECB. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve by exploiting cross-country variation and by using high-frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. Third, we present reduced-form evidence, focusing on the relation between slack and inflation and the role of inflation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of inflation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass-through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of inflation expectations remain central to successful inflation stabilisation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 17 July 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2295Details
- Abstract
- We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and structural changes. Using Dynamic Model Averaging, we identify the most important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its probability distribution. We compare the distribution of forecasts performed in recent years, and we assess, in a probabilistic manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles