Emil Bandoni
- 31 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The presence of institutional investors, particularly investment funds, in euro area residential real estate (RRE) markets has increased markedly in recent years. Yet the implications for housing markets, as well as for financial stability more broadly, remain largely unstudied. This box shows that a positive (negative) demand shock from institutional investors has a positive (negative) and persistent impact on RRE prices between 2007 and 2021. Also, the link between local economic fundamentals and house price growth appears to weaken in regions with a greater presence of institutional investors. This may reinforce the build-up of financial vulnerabilities, as investor demand falls and the cycle turns. It also raises concerns that vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector may amplify any real estate market correction, with potential implications for the financial resilience of banks, households and exposed firms. For this reason, it is important to develop policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of real estate investment funds – such as lower redemption frequencies, longer notice and settlement periods, and longer minimum holding periods.
- JEL Code
- G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33. : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 10 October 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- This focus shows that the interest rate sensitivity of the loan-service-to-income (LSTI) ratio depends on the initial loan-to-income (LTI) ratio, the loan maturity, the interest rate fixation period and the initial interest rate. Based on loan-level simulations for securitised mortgages we find that LSTI increases in response to higher interest rates would be manageable for most loans but pockets of vulnerabilities exist.
- JEL Code
- G51 : Financial Economics
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 10 October 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- Understanding the drivers for residential real estate (RRE) price developments, measuring house price overvaluation, monitoring trends in bank lending and borrowers’ creditworthiness is important for assessing RRE risks and informing policy responses. The ECB uses a comprehensive monitoring framework for regularly assessing RRE vulnerabilities comprising a series of core risk indicators complemented by a broad set of analytical tools. This article describes some of these tools to explain how they are employed in risk analysis.
- JEL Code
- R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
- 17 November 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- In order to assess the strength of the current residential real estate expansion, we compare recent developments in euro area housing markets with the period ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that house price dynamics, overvaluation and the risk profile of new mortgage loans are at similar levels to those observed during the height of the pre-GFC cycle in 2007. However, vulnerabilities from mortgage lending developments and household balance sheets are currently below their pre-GFC levels. We conclude that the continued build-up of vulnerabilities in residential real estate markets calls for close monitoring and possible macroprudential measures.
- JEL Code
- R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
G51 : Financial Economics
P34 : Economic Systems→Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions→Financial Economics
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises