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Alina Bobasu

21 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
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Abstract
This box looks at the current phase of the business cycle in major non-euro area advanced economies with a view to assessing the factors behind the transition to weaker growth.It shows that in several key advanced economies the output gap is currently in positive territory, with activity still expanding faster than potential. Although growth in non-euro area advanced economies has been slowing, signals of a severe slowdown or recession appear contained. This notwithstanding, downside risks abound and have increased lately.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
5 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
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Abstract
While both global activity and trade have been declining since mid-2018, world trade has slowed particularly sharply. This box investigates the reasons behind the decline in global trade and its decoupling from economic activity. This is largely explained by a turnaround in the most trade-intensive components of global demand, such as investment, exacerbated by rising global uncertainty and tighter financing conditions. From a production perspective, the decline in investment was reflected in a sharp slowdown in manufacturing output.
JEL Code
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
6 February 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020
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Abstract
Over the past year the global economy has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown. Global growth has weakened on the back of soft investment, which was also a key driver of global trade’s sharp fall into contractionary territory in the first half of 2019 (see Chart A). The slowdown in global investment and trade has occurred in an environment of rising trade tensions between the United States and China, slowing Chinese demand, (geo-)political tensions, Brexit and idiosyncratic stresses in several emerging economies, with rising uncertainty magnifying the negative impact. Against this backdrop, this box assesses the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
11 August 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2451
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Abstract
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering about 70% of the world’s GDP. We use four criteria to assess the performance of these indicators, namely quantile regressions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, the ability of the indices to predict banking crises and their response to US monetary policy shocks. We find that averaging across the indicators of interest, using judgemental but intuitive weights, produces financial condition indices that are not inferior to, and actually perform better than, those constructed with more sophisticated statistical methods.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
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Abstract
This box studies the relative impact on inflation of pandemic-induced demand and supply constraints for key advanced economies outside the euro area by using granular data on consumption expenditures and prices and a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) framework. It finds that during the initial phase of the pandemic, consumer price inflation was driven more by demand-sensitive components and less by supply-sensitive ones. The structural analysis confirms a dominant role for demand shocks in the pandemic. It concludes that the impact of pandemic-related supply constraints on inflation appears limited to date. Yet, more granular analysis is needed to assess the consequences of the pandemic for the drivers of inflation.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
26 April 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2541
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Abstract
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro area. Our measures display a clear counter-cyclical pattern and line up well to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we estimate a Proxy SVAR where we instrument uncertainty shocks with changes in the price of gold around specific past events. We find that, historically, global uncertainty shocks have been important drivers of fluctuations in euro area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0.15 percentage points from euro area industrial production on impact.
JEL Code
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
3 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
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Abstract
A rapid recovery in activity and trade has lengthened supplier delivery times, while international shipping costs have also increased. This box analyses the factors driving the surge in shipping costs by means of a Structural VAR model. It concludes that recent developments reflect rising demand and, to a smaller degree, supply constraints in the shipping industry. At the same time, the impact of rising shipping costs on overall consumer prices is expected to be limited.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics