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Stefan Gebauer

Monetary Policy

Division: Monetary Policy Strategy
Current Position: Senior Economist
Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,International Economics
Email: stefan.gebauer@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Education: 2014-2020
PhD in Economics, Free University, Berlin, Germany; 2012-2014
MSc in International Economics and Economic Policy, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; 2008-2012
BSc in Economics and Business Administration, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany; 2010-2011
BSc in Economics, University of Massachusetts, Boston, United States
Professional experience: 2020-2022
Economist - Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Division, Directorate General Economics, Statistics and International, Banque de France; 2016-2020
Research Associate - Forecasting and Economic Policy Department, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW); 2015-2016
External Consultant - Country Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

ECB publications

6 July 2026

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 392

The propagation of shocks across the production network and implications for monetary policy

English

Abstract: The repeated occurrence of supply-chain disruptions since the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the need to complement traditional macroeconomic frameworks with approaches that better capture the complexity of modern economic productionstructures. This paper synthesises the findings of the ChaMP Research Network, highlighting how production network models and heterogeneity across firms, sectors and countries enrich our understanding of monetary policy transmission. Bycapturing input-output relationships between firms and economic sectors, these approaches show how the propagation and persistence of shocks depend on network structure, the position of sectors within the network – where central sectorsexert disproportionate influence – and differences and variations in price and wage flexibility. The inflationary effects of supply shocks tend to be amplified, while the effects of demand shocks, including monetary policy shocks, are dampened. Inaddition, large shocks can give rise to nonlinearities, such as a steepening of the Phillips curve. This aligns with the conclusions of the ECB’s most recent strategy assessment, which emphasise the need to analyse the risks surrounding the inflationoutlook. The findings also point to the emergence of trade-offs between inflation and output gap stabilisation, as production networks and heterogeneity weaken the alignment between price and output dynamics. As a result, stabilising inflation andoutput simultaneously calls for astute fiscal policy. Overall, incorporating production networks provides a more nuanced and policy-relevant framework for designing state-contingent and data-informed monetary policy.
JEL Code: E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D57 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Input?Output Tables and Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles

10 February 2026

THE ECB BLOG

Lower inflation, weaker activity: what foreign import tariffs mean for the euro area

English

JEL Code: E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General

5 February 2025

THE ECB BLOG

What happens when US and euro area monetary policy decouple?

English

JEL Code: E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies

16 December 2024

THE ECB BLOG

What drives domestic inflation? The triangle of wages, profits and productivity

English

JEL Code: E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy

1 October 2024

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2985

The inflationary consequences of prioritising central bank profits

English

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income. Using data for the euro area, we quantify the consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank’s willingness to accept temporary losses reflects a commitment to price stability, rather than a hindrance.
JEL Code: E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy

31 July 2024

THE ECB BLOG

How central bank communication affects the economy

English

JEL Code: E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other

13 May 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2406

Macroprudential regulation and leakage to the shadow banking sector

English

Abstract: Macroprudential policies are often aimed at the commercial banking sector, while a host of other non-bank financial institutions, or shadow banks, may not fall under their jurisdiction. We study the effects of tightening commercial bank regulation on the shadow banking sector. We develop a DSGE model that differentiates between regulated, monopolistic competitive commercial banks and a shadow banking system that relies on funding in a perfectly competitive market for investments. After estimating the model using euro area data from 1999 – 2014 including information on shadow banks, we find that tighter capital requirements on commercial banks increase shadow bank lending, which may have adverse financial stability effects. Coordinating macroprudential tightening with monetary easing can limit this leakage mechanism, while still bringing about the desired reduction in aggregate lending. In a counterfactual analysis, we compare how macroprudential policy implemented before the crisis would have dampened the business and lending cycles.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Network: Research Task Force (RTF)

12 September 2017

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2101

Corporate debt and investment: a firm analysis for stressed euro area countries

English

Abstract: This paper investigates the link between corporate debt and investment for a group of five peripheral euro area countries. Using firm-level data from 2005-2014, we postulate a non-linear corporate leverage-investment relationship and derive thresholds beyond which leverage has a negative and significant impact on investment. The investment sensitivity of debt increased after 2008 when financial distress intensified and firms had a lower capacity to finance investment from internal sources of funds. Our results also suggest that even moderate levels of debt can exert a negative influence on investment for smaller firms or when profitability is low.
JEL Code: E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill

External publications

2026

Applied Economics Letters

Macroeconomic effects of (de-)synchronized monetary policy shocks