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Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela

21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 277
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Abstract
This paper discusses the role of economic and monetary analysis in the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Both areas of analysis have evolved since the 2003 strategy review. Economic analysis has assigned an increasingly relevant role to the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections in forming a view on the medium-term outlook for economic activity and inflation. Furthermore, its focus has strengthened with regard to structural trends in shaping key economic relationships. Similarly, monetary analysis has shifted in focus: while the 2003 review emphasised the information value of monetary dynamics for detecting risks to price stability over medium-term to longer-term horizons, the focus of monetary analysis has increasingly been redirected to the assessment of monetary policy transmission. This evolution has opened a gap between the formal description of the strategy following the 2003 review and the practice of economic and monetary analysis in informing the ECB’s policy deliberations. This paper concludes by presenting options for closing this gap and aligning the strategy formulation with the evolved role of economic and monetary analysis.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
28 January 2016
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 167
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Abstract
Although monetary union created the conditions for improving economic and financial integration in the euro area, in the context of the financial and sovereign crises, it has also been accompanied by the emergence of severe imbalances in savings and investment, credit and housing booms in some countries and the allocation of resources towards less productive sectors. The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis then led to major and abrupt adjustments as the risks posed by the large imbalances materialised. Although the institutional shortcomings in the EU that permitted the emergence of imbalances have been largely addressed since 2008, the adjustment process is not yet complete. From a macroeconomic perspective, the imbalances in the external accounts have led to the accumulation of high levels of external liabilities that need to be reduced, which, in turn, is weakening investment and therefore weighing on growth prospects and growth potential. From a macroprudential perspective, the lingering imbalances have added to systemic risk and rendered the euro area more vulnerable to risks. This Occasional Paper analyses the dynamic patterns in macroeconomic imbalances primarily from the former perspective, addressing in particular the connections between macroeconomic and sectoral adjustments of imbalances and the challenges for economic growth and performance over a longer horizon.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
11 November 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1741
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Abstract
In this paper we study the impact that financial reputation and official market interventions have on the timing and amount of debt issuance decisions by banks. To do so, we propose an extension of the two-part modelling framework of Cragg (1971, eq. 7 and 9) to accommodate random effects. We use quarterly information on 70 major listed European banks from 2003Q1 to 2012Q1. Focusing on a wide range of financial reputation indicators, we show that credit ratings are a significant and positive determinant of the timing of uncollateralised debt issuance decisions. Empirical results do not suggest that ratings have a significant impact on the amount of debt placed by banks. Other financial reputation indicators analysed are found to be of second- order relevance on debt issuance decisions. Our results also suggest that central bank liquidity programs may have had a large impact on both the timing and the amount of collateralised debt issuance during the recent financial crisis, but had a negligible impact on uncollateralised debt issuance decisions.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
8 August 2013
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 151
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Abstract
This report analyses and reviews the corporate finance structure of non-financial corporations (NFCs) in the euro area, including how they interact with the macroeconomic environment. Special emphasis is placed on the crisis that began in 2007-08, thus underlining the relevance of financing and credit conditions to investment and economic activity in turbulent times. When approaching such a broad topic, a number of key questions arise. How did the corporate sector
JEL Code
E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
1 October 2010
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1251
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Abstract
The financial crisis clearly illuminated the potential amplifying role of financial factors on macroeconomic developments. Indeed, the heavy impairments of banks’ balance sheets brought to the fore the banking sector’s ability to provide a smooth flow of credit to the real economy. However, most existing structural macroeconomic models fail to take into account the crucial role of banks’ balance sheet adjustment in the propagation of shocks to the economy. This paper contributes to fill this gap, analyzing the role of credit market frictions in business cycle fluctuations and in the transmission of monetary policy. We estimate a closed-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the euro area with financially-constrained households and firms and embedding an oligopolistic banking sector facing capital constraints. Using this setup we examine the macroeconomic implications of various financial frictions on the supply and demand of credit, and in particular we assess the effects of introducing risk-sensitive and more stringent capital requirements. Finally, we explore the scope for counter-cyclical bank capital rules and the strategic complementarities between macro-prudential tools and monetary policy.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
1 September 2003
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 278
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Abstract
This paper reviews the key economic issues concerning the welfare costs of inflation and deflation, with a view to shedding light on the desirable properties of the inflation process. Our review of the evidence on the overall costs of inflation and deflation indicates that such costs could be even higher than previously thought, also at moderate rates of inflation, thereby strengthening the case for price stability. We also review two of the arguments usually invoked for maintaining a small positive rate of inflation: the potential alleviation of poor economic performance arising from downward nominal rigidities and the role of sustained inflation differentials within the euro area. Recent evidence suggests that the macroeconomic relevance of these two factors is minor, even when considered in combination, although this assessment remains surrounded by high uncertainty.
JEL Code
D60 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
H21 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Efficiency, Optimal Taxation
Network
Background study for the evaluation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy
1 September 2003
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 273
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Abstract
Announcing a quantitative objective for price developments has become a common practice in modern monetary policy making. While the specific features of such announced objectives vary across countries, a common rationale for this is to help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When comparing this evidence across types of announcements of the inflation objectives, we find that the specific features of announcements have no visible effect on the performance at anchoring inflation expectations. In particular, there does not seem to be evidence that the announcement of a quantitative objective in the form of a point or of a range for admissible inflation rates makes any appreciable difference.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Network
Background study for the evaluation of the ECB's monetary policy strategy
1 June 2002
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 155
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Abstract
We use a panel of OECD countries to gauge the relevance of the relative size of the youth population, labour market institutions and macroeconomic shocks at explaining observed relative youth employement rates. We find that the fluctuations of the youth population size caused by the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s and the subsequent decline of fertility in many European countries are positivily associated with fluctuations in relative youth unemployment rates. We also find that some labour market institutions contribute to increase yout unemployment, and that the adjustment to macroeconomic shocks has affected relatively more to young workers than to adult workers. To motivate the effects of institution on the relative unemployment rate of young workers, we lay out a simple theoretical model that builds on the imperfect substitutability of workers of different ages, and on the non-allocative role of (age specific) wages.
JEL Code
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
1 March 2002
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 132
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Abstract
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the current EU-accession countries in central and eastern Europe, focusing particularly on the determinants of 'dual inflation', that is, diverging inflation rates for tradable and non-tradable goods. The paper draws on the recently published data for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of the Accession countries and, indeed, finds evidence of ' dual inflation' in these economies. To test empirically for underlying determinants, the paper borrows from the recently developed New Phillips curve literature. Overall, domestic factors have systematically a stronger impact upon non-tradable goods inflation whereas international factors have a stronger impact over tradable goods. Furthermore, the results point to the possibly very different effects of exchange rate regimes over tradable and non-tradable goods inflation. On the whole, the findings suggest that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not a prominent factor behind the current 'experience' of dual inflation in these countries.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
P24 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→National Income, Product, and Expenditure, Money, Inflation
1 March 2002
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 131
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Abstract
The Harmonized Index Of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one sort or another that may cause it to systematically overstate the true rate of inflation in the euro area. The purpose of this paper is to review what is known about the scope of measurement error in the HICP. We conclude that given the scant research on price measurement issues in the EU and the ongoing improvements in the HICP, there is almost no scientific basis at this time for a point (or even an interval) estimate of a positive bias in the HICP.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
1 April 2001
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 57
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Abstract
We derive indicators of labour market flexibility that are comparable across countries and time intervals. Our indicators build on a structural VAR model of real wages, output and unemployment dynamics. We compute our indicators for thirteen OECD countries and for two time periods, and we compare them with existing indicators of labour market flexibility in the literature . The main result of the paper is that we did not find evidence of a closing gap in terms of labour market flexibility between the United States and continental European countries, although our findings suggest that medium-sized and small countries have experienced greater improvements in this regard than the large countries since the mid-eighties.
JEL Code
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J41 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Labor Contracts
1 April 2001
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 54
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Abstract
This paper assesses the statistical reliability of different measures of the output gap for the Euro-11 area and the US using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have forecasting power over inflation. Secondly, the ex post statistical revisions of the output gap should not differ significantly from previously computed measures. As an additional check on reliability, we find out whether the estimate of the output gap is positively correlated with standard measures of capacity utilization. We find that under our multivariate specification, unobservable components (UC) type models of the output gap show temporal consistency between sequential and final estimates and are consistent with known cyclical indicators. On the other hand, our UC models for the output gap have limited forecasting power for inflation, since they underperform an arbitrary autoregressive model.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
1 March 2001
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 43
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Abstract
We build on the imperfection of intellectual property rights as the central motivation for the organization of firms. There are several characteristics specific to a theory of the firm grounded on the absence of intellectual property rights: monetary incentive schemes arise naturally as a element of the organization and strategy of the firm, since profits are verifiable; firm's boundaries and the degree of centralization respond to the same economic principle; the sunk cost of physical assets plays a role of 'anchoring' non-patentable knowledge inside the firm, improving the appropriability of intellectual capital. Moreover, the model implies that 'small' changes in primitives (particularly small reductions in entry costs) may have drastic implications in organizations, inducing firms to shift from a strategy of building up physical capital, which improves appropriability, to a strategy of reliance on employee 'empowerment' (under which employees combine equity holding with being fully informed). The former strategy is characterized instead by flat wages and by employees' restricted access to the intellectual capital of the firm. The model may shed light in the theoretical explanation of observed industrial restructuring.
JEL Code
C70 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Game Theory and Bargaining Theory→General
D23 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Organizational Behavior, Transaction Costs, Property Rights
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
L22 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Organization and Market Structure
O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives