- 4 May 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2053Details
- We provide a new theory of expectationsdriven business cycles in which consumers’ learning from prices dramatically alters the eﬀects of aggregate shocks. Learning from prices causes changes in aggregate productivity to shift aggregate beliefs, generating positive price-quantity comovement. The feedback of beliefs into prices can be so strong that even arbitrarily small productivity shocks lead to substantial ﬂuctuations. Augmented with a public signal, the model can generate a rich mix of supply- and demand-driven ﬂuctuations even though productivity is the only source of aggregate randomness. Our results imply that many standard identiﬁcation assumptions used to disentangle supply and demand shocks may not be valid in environments in which agents learn from prices.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles