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Martin Strukat
- 23 June 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) is a valuable information set for understanding the expectations of financial market participants regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in the euro area. This article reviews the evolution of the SMA over the past five years, highlighting key development milestones, including changes to the panel, questionnaire and analytical use of the survey. It explains how SMA data enhance regular monetary policy assessments and the understanding of expectation formation. In particular, the links between the expected policy rate path and the macroeconomic expectations of respondents provide structured insights into the views of the analysts. This has proven to be particularly valuable during periods of economic uncertainty, including during the post-pandemic surge in inflation and the subsequent period of disinflation. The article also evaluates the forecast accuracy of the SMA, as well as the disagreement among respondents, and the dispersion of their macroeconomic expectations.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.