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Alfred A. Haug

9 August 2004
Abstract: We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real and nominal output growth and inflation. We pick cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years, using band-pass filters. We employ a data set from 1880 to 2001 for eleven countries, without gaps. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic and important role at the business cycle frequency. However, money growth leads or contemporaneously affects nominal output growth and inflation in the longer run. This result holds despite differences in policies and institutions across countries.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
25 February 2009
There is scant empirical support in the literature for the Fisher effect in the long run, though it is often assumed in theoretical models. We argue that a break in the cointegrating relation introduces a spurious unit root that leads to a rejection of cointegration. We applied new break tests and tested for nonlinearity in the cointegrating relation with post-war data for 15 countries. Our empirical results support cointegration, after accounting for breaks, and a linear Fisher relation in the long run. This is in contrast to several recent studies that found no support for linear cointegration.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes