Sixth conference on expectations surveys

Registration and Breakfast

Welcoming Remarks by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Expectations and Consumer Behavior

Chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending

• Olivier Coibion
• Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
• Yuriy Gorodnichenko
• Geoff Kenny

Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume

• Gizem Kosar
• Davide Melcangi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Wage Expectations and Job Search

• Steffen Altman
• Robert Mahlstedt
• Malte Rattenborg
• Alexander Sebald
• Sonja Settele
• Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne

Coffee Break

Firm Expectations

Chair: Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity

• Giuseppe Fiori, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
• Filippo Scoccianti

Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

• Ina Hajdini
• Saten Kumar
• Samreen Malik
• Jordan Norris
• Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank

Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies

• Edgar Avalos
• Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School
• Elwyn Davies
• Leonardo Iacovone
• Jesica Torres

Lunch

Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys

Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Panelists:

• Thomas Crossley, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
• Jeff Dominitz, Rice University
• Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Coffee Break

Flash Talks I

Chair: Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada

Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception

• Aureo de Paula
• Grant Miller
• Christine Valente, University of Bristol

Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search

• Armando Miano, University of Naples
• What Determines Household Expectations?
• Anushka Mitra, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
• Aditi Singh

Coffee Break

Flash Talks II

Chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Inflation Preferences

• Hassan Afrouzi
• Alexander Dietrich
• Kristian Ove Myrseth
• Romanos Priftis
• Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Selective Inattention to Interest Rates

• Tim de Silva
• Pierfrancesco Mei, Goldman Sachs

Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment

• Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmoller

• Olga Goldfayn-Frank

• Tobias Schmidt, Deutsche Bundesbank

Reception

Dinner

Breakfast

Keynote Lecture

Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw

Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data

Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University

Coffee Break

Methods and Measurement

Chair: Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada

Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Columbia

• Manuel Arellano
• Orazio Attanasio, Yale University
• Sam Crossman
• Victor Sancibrian

Learning from Survey Density Forecasts

• Martin Almuzara
• Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Gizem Kosar

Incentivizing Inflation Expectations

• Sergii Drobot
• Daniela Puzzello, Indiana University at Bloomington
• Ryan Rholes
• Alena Wabitsch

Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset

• Naveen Rai
• Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada

Lunch

Belief Formation

Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank

Attention to the Macroeconomy

• Sebastian Link
• Andreas Peichl
• Oliver Pfauti, University of Texas at Austin
• Christopher Roth
• Johannes Wohlfart

Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University

Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times

• Isaac Baley
• Javier Turen, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

End of Conference