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Valentin Burban

30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
Market-based measures of inflation compensation and market-implied real interest rates contain important information for monetary policy analysis but are available for the euro area only for the period since 2005. However, since they are correlated with other macroeconomic and financial variables that are available for longer periods, it is possible to construct time series for market-based measures of inflation compensation and real rates going back to 1992, using a penalised regression approach. These time series can be used as an input into econometric analysis and for illustrating stylised facts and historical patterns.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications