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Giovanni Trebbi
Economics
- Division
Prices & Costs
- Current Position
-
Economist
- 21 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3288Details
- Abstract
- Theory suggests inflation risk premia are positive when supply shocks are expected to dominate demand shocks and negative otherwise. We measure these beliefs using demand and supply narratives derived from inflation news via Causality Extraction, which identifies causal relations between inflation and its drivers. Using narrative extracted from inflation news from the Financial Times for the Euro Area and the Wall Street Journal for the US, our key variable, NetDemand, measures the difference in articles attributing inflation to demand versus supply factors. Consistent with asset pricing theory, inflation risk premia are inversely related to NetDemand across maturities in both regions. This relationship holds even after controlling for the composite PMI and VIX, strengthens with risk aversion in the US and inflation volatility in the Euro Area, and is not subsumed by other measures of demand and supply contributions to inflation, views of professional forecasters, or narratives obtained from LLMs.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 6 August 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations following the recent energy price shock using level, higher-moment and shock-sensitivity measures from surveys of consumers, firms and professional forecasters. A holistic approach reflecting the structurally different expectation patterns, uncertainty levels and biases of these different agents yields three main findings. First, level anchoring broadly holds, as the longer-term expectations of professional forecasters remain at 2%, while firms and consumers have revised their expectations upwards only modestly and still largely view the recent increase in inflation as temporary. Second, disagreement and high inflation tail risks remain contained relative to 2022-2023 peaks, although signals are weaker for consumers and firms than for professional forecasters. Third, while consumers (unlike professional forecasters) tend to revise longer-term expectations alongside short-term ones, longer-term expectations have not become more sensitive to short-term expectations since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Overall, longer-term inflation expectations appear to be broadly anchored but warrant continued close monitoring.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 29 July 2026
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Related- 3 June 2026
- THE ECB BLOG
- 9 March 2026
- THE ECB BLOG
- 1 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3158Details
- Abstract
- I study how demand-supply narrative disagreement between general and specialized newspapers can explain households’ absolute gap in inflation expectations with experts. I measure inflation narratives via a Causality Extraction algorithm that can identify causal relationships between events in a text and, hence, extract the perceived triggers of inflation. Causal relations can explain why narratives affect people’s beliefs and cannot be captured by dictionary methods, topic models, and word embeddings. I then classify inflation narratives into demand and supply narratives based on their focus on demand and supply triggers. I measure narrative disagreement between general and specialized newspapers from their attention difference on demand and supply narratives. The absolute expectation gap widens when narrative disagreement increases, especially for non-college-educated and older households. Unlike the narratives of specialized newspapers, the narratives of general newspapers incorrectly align with experts’ demand-supply views.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
D1 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles