ECB/CFS Conference Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty

•  Welcome
•  Programme
•  Paper abstracts/downloads
•  Organisation
•  Participants
•  Contact
•  Proceedings of the Conference

Welcome

The European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies at Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität in Frankfurt
are organizing a Conference on Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty

Frankfurt December 3/4, 1999
European Central Bank - Room # C IV

Please note that attendance is by invitation only.

The conference organizers: Ignazio Angeloni - Frank Smets - Axel Weber

Programme

(status: November 22, 1999)

Friday, December 3, 1999

• 9:00
  Introduction: W. Duisenberg (European Central Bank)
• Morning Session
  Chair: J. Taylor (Stanford University)
• 9:15
  Policy Panel:
  Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty
  
  Participants:
  S. Cecchetti (Ohio State University)
  C. Freedman (Bank of Canada)
  O. Issing (European Central Bank)
  L. Leiderman (Bank of Israel)
  L. Papademos (Bank of Greece)
  
• 11:00
  Coffee break
• 11:30
  L.E.O. Svensson (Stockholm University and Princeton University) and M. Woodford (Princeton University):
  "Indicator variables for optimal policy"
  
  Discussants:
  J. Viñals (Banco de España)
  G. Tabellini (Bocconi University)
• 13:00
  Luncheon
• Afternoon Session
  Chair: A.A. Weber (Center for Financial Studies)
• 14:15
  T. Sargent (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) and In-Koo Cho (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign):
  ""Escaping Nash Inflation"
  
  Discussants:
  R. Marimon (European University Institute)
  J. Stock (Harvard University)
• 15:45
  A. Levin, V. Wieland and J. Williams (Federal Reserve Board):
  "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty"
  
  Discussants:
  C. Bean (London School of Economics)
  S. Gerlach (Bank for International Settlements)
• 17:00
  Coffee break
• 17:30
  A. Orphanides (Federal Reserve Board):
  "The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation"
  
  Discussants:
  J. Galí (New York University)
  P. DeGrauwe (Leuven University)
• 19:30
  Dinner (Venue to be defined)
  
  Keynote Speech: A. Blinder (Princeton University)

Saturday, December 4, 1999

• Morning Session
  Chair: V. Gaspar (European Central Bank)
• 9:00
  G. Rudebusch (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco):
  "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty"
  
  Discussants:
  B. McCallum (Carnegie Mellon University)
  H. Jensen (University of Copenhagen)
• 10:30
  Coffee break
• 11:00
  Shorter presentations:

  • M. Ellison and N. Valla (European University Institute):
    "Learning, Uncertainty and Central Bank Activism in an Economy with Strategic Interactions"
  • P. Geraats (University of California, Berkeley):
    "Transparency and Reputation: Should the ECB publish its Inflation Forecast ?"
  • B. Winkler (European Central Bank):
    "On the Need for Clarity in Monetary Policy Making"
  • P. Schellekens (Harvard University, London School of Economics and UFSIA):
    "Caution and Conservatism in the Making of Monetary Policy"
  • U. Söderström (Sveriges Riksbank):
    "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters"

  Discussants:
  A. Cukierman (Tel Aviv University)
  M. Goodfriend (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
  C. Walsh (University of California, Santa Cruz)
• 13:00
  Luncheon

Paper Abstracts and Downloads

• Wim Duisenberg: Introductory statement t o the conference on "Monetary policy-making under uncertainty", organised jointly by the European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies of the University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, 3 December 1999.
• Otmar Issing: The monetary policy of the ECB in a world of uncertainty, contribution to the policy panel at the conference on "Monetary policy-making under uncertainty", organised jointly by the European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies of the University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, 3 December 1999.

The following Papers are downloadable as pdf-files:

• Cho, In-Koo/Sargent, Thomas J. (1999): Escaping Nash inflation, June 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 23),  pdf 1.2 MB, en
• Ellison, Martin/Valla, Natacha (1999): Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions, August 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 28),  pdf 1 MB, en
• Geraats, Petra M. (1999): Transparency and reputation: Should the ECB publish its inflation forecasts?  pdf 277 kB, en
• Levin, Andrew/Wieland, Volker/Williams, John C. (1999): The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty,  pdf 327 kB, en
• Orphanides, Athanasios (1999): The quest for prosperity without inflation, March 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 15),  pdf 604 kB, en
• Rudebusch, Glenn D. (1999): Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 14),  pdf 556 kB, en
• Schellekens, Philip (1999): Caution and conservatism in the making of monetary policy, July 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 25),  pdf 630 kB, en
• Söderström, Ulf (1999): Monetary policy with uncertain parameters, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 13),  pdf 390 kB, en
• Svensson, Lars E.O./Woodford, Michael (1999): Indicator variables for optimal policy, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 12),  pdf 324 kB, en
• Winkler, Bernhard (1999): Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making, August 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 26),  pdf 876 kB, en

Organisation

Participants

Contact

Proceedings of the Conference

Proceedings of the Conference

pdf 2.6 MB, en