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Publications on Trade

8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
The pandemic triggered the deepest global recession (albeit short-lived) since the Second World War amid large-scale policy support, and led to a sweeping fall in world trade. Following the initial COVID-19 shock, trade staged a rapid recovery, but from the second half of 2022 world trade growth started to decelerate markedly and in 2023 it is estimated to have been considerably below its pre-pandemic average. This box reviews the factors behind the buoyant recovery of global trade following the initial COVID-19 shock and the reasons for its lacklustre performance in 2023, finding that the latter mainly reflects the unwinding of some specific post-pandemic factors (e.g. the rotation of demand from trade-intensive goods towards services owing to the full relaxation of pandemic containment measures) and a less trade-friendly composition of global activity.
JEL Code
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F1 : International Economics→Trade
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
6 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc survey of leading firms operating in the euro area, looking at current trends in global production location and input sourcing, and their impact on activity and prices. The responses indicate that firms increasingly expect to respond to heightened geopolitical risk. In the next five years, more so than in the last five years, firms expect to diversify the location of their operations and their sources of inputs, and to move operations and supply chains to countries that are geographically and geopolitically closer to the final points of sale. Many firms that source critical inputs from China are reducing this exposure. Geopolitical risk is now the most important factor behind decisions to relocate operations into the EU, while demand and cost factors still drive relocations out of the EU. Overall, the aggregate impact which relocation decisions will have on the share of value added generated by firms in the EU is unclear, but such decisions have already pushed up prices and will continue to do so – albeit to a lesser extent – in the next few years.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
L23 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Organization of Production
25 August 2023
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the annual Economic Policy Symposium "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy" organised by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole
12 July 2023
THE ECB BLOG
After decades of being both hero and villain, globalisation is said to be on the retreat. There is a common perception that companies are diversifying supply chains and relocating business closer to home. So, are we heading towards deglobalisation? We dig deeper and find that the data tell a different story.
Details
JEL Code
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
29 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.
JEL Code
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
27 February 2023
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted M.C. Govardhana Rangan on 24 February 2023
10 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
11 May 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management
Annexes
11 May 2022
ANNEX
22 April 2022
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
31 March 2022
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France – Paris School of Economics
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
23 September 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box documents recent transport and input-related bottlenecks in global trade and shows how euro area countries have been particularly affected. An empirical analysis assesses the impact of supply bottlenecks on global and euro area export growth and estimates the cumulated shortfall for the level of goods exports to be 6.7% for the euro area and 2.3% for the rest of the world.
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
10 May 2021
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
2 December 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi on 1 December 2020
13 September 2020
SPEECH
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during the session “Economic, financial and monetary impact of COVID-19 pandemic, and post-crisis options for policies and tools”
2 March 2020
SPEECH
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the European Economics and Financial Centre
17 February 2020
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint European Central Bank, Irving Fisher Committee and Banco de Portugal conference on “Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?”
6 February 2020
SPEECH
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECON committee of the European Parliament
3 February 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Rallou Alexopoulou on 3 February 2020 and broadcast (in part) on 3 February 2020
24 January 2020
INTERVIEW
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Francine Lacqua and broadcast on 24 January
23 January 2020
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 23 January 2020
9 January 2020
SPEECH
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England Workshop on "The Future of Inflation Targeting" in London, 9 January 2020
29 November 2019
SPEECH
Closing remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the VIII High-level Policy Dialogue between Eurosystem and Latin American central banks
22 November 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress
14 November 2019
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme Meeting
1 October 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of California
16 September 2019
SPEECH
Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bloomberg, London, 16 September 2019
Annexes
16 September 2019
SPEECH
7 September 2019
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at The European House-Ambrosetti Forum, Cernobbio, 7 September 2019
15 May 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Steptoe Brussels Open Conference Series, Brussels, 15 May 2019
10 April 2019
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 April 2019
6 April 2019
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at The Outlook for the Economy and Finance conference, Cernobbio, 6 April 2019
27 March 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX', Frankfurt am Main, 27 March 2019
7 March 2019
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 7 March 2019
22 February 2019
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, on the award of Laurea honoris causa in law from Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, 22 February 2019
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
13 December 2018
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 December 2018
16 November 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt am Main, 16 November 2018
17 September 2018
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the Société Royale d’Economie Politique, Brussels, 17 September 2018
14 June 2018
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
26 April 2018
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 April 2018
6 April 2018
SPEECH
Panel contribution by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 29th edition of the workshop “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance”, “Villa d’Este”, Cernobbio, 6 April 2018
8 March 2018
MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 8 March 2018
16 February 2018
SPEECH
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, NBRM High Level International Conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Management, Skopje, 16 February 2018
Annexes
15 February 2018
SPEECH
Presentation by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint French Treasury / IMF conference entitled “Transforming France’s economy and completing the integration of the Eurozone”, Paris, 15 February 2018