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2024 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2024 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Mar. 2025 Mar. 2026 2028
Mean point estimate 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 61 60 51 49 40 52
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Mar. 2025 Mar. 2026 2028
<-1.0% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.50.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.70.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.30.8
0.0 to 0.4% 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.52.0
0.5 to 0.9% 1.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.35.4
1.0 to 1.4% 4.6 10.2 10.8 11.6 11.711.4
1.5 to 1.9% 12.7 24.1 23.8 21.9 20.023.3
2.0 to 2.4% 36.1 29.7 28.2 27.2 24.727.6
2.5 to 2.9% 27.8 14.8 14.9 15.9 16.315.1
3.0 to 3.4% 9.8 6.9 7.2 7.7 7.97.1
3.5 to 3.9% 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.53.5
4.0 to 4.4% 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.31.6
4.5 to 4.9% 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.30.7
>5.0% 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.00.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Mar. 2025 Mar. 2026 2028
Mean point estimate 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 48 48 42 42 35 41
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Mar. 2025 Mar. 2026 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.10.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.70.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.81.7
0.5 to 0.9% 0.9 2.9 4.2 2.9 4.45.2
1.0 to 1.4% 2.6 8.4 11.0 9.8 9.611.9
1.5 to 1.9% 7.3 21.6 23.7 22.1 22.325.3
2.0 to 2.4% 27.6 35.9 31.5 29.5 29.830.0
2.5 to 2.9% 37.6 16.8 15.2 18.3 16.914.6
3.0 to 3.4% 16.4 7.4 6.8 9.4 8.25.8
3.5 to 3.9% 5.3 3.4 3.4 4.5 3.72.3
4.0 to 4.4% 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.51.1
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.70.6
>5.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.30.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 2024 Q4 2025 Q4 2028
Mean point estimate 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 60 51 56 49 49
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 2024 Q4 2025 Q4 2028
<-1.0% 1.7 1.3 1.2 3.0 2.81.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.2 1.3 1.3 2.3 1.51.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 9.4 3.1 2.7 5.8 3.52.9
0.0 to 0.4% 27.2 6.4 6.4 14.6 7.46.8
0.5 to 0.9% 35.8 13.7 12.2 23.3 14.614.0
1.0 to 1.4% 15.8 29.0 25.7 25.8 23.625.4
1.5 to 1.9% 4.4 26.0 27.6 14.3 23.325.2
2.0 to 2.4% 1.5 11.9 13.7 5.9 13.713.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 4.3 5.7 2.2 4.85.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.7 2.0 1.0 2.12.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.11.1
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.51.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Feb. 2025 Feb. 2026 2028
Mean point estimate 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Number of replies 53 52 45 39 36 42
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Feb. 2025 Feb. 2026 2028
<4.0% 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.80.9
4.0 to 4.4% 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.01.1
4.5 to 4.9% 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.92.7
5.0 to 5.4% 1.3 2.7 4.3 2.7 4.77.3
5.5 to 5.9% 4.6 9.1 11.7 9.6 12.815.1
6.0 to 6.4% 28.1 27.7 29.5 26.9 27.624.9
6.5 to 6.9% 41.4 32.7 27.6 32.7 26.920.9
7.0 to 7.4% 17.5 16.5 14.0 15.9 12.911.8
7.5 to 7.9% 3.6 5.4 5.0 6.3 6.26.9
8.0 to 8.4% 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.73.5
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.52.0
9.0 to 9.4% 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.71.3
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.20.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0