A digitális euro
Az eurorendszerben zajlanak a fizikai készpénz kiegészítőjének szánt digitális euro esetleges kibocsátásának előkészületei.
MONETÁRIS POLITIKA
2026. július 23.
Monetáris politikai közleményünk röviden
Melyek az új monetáris politikai közleményünk főbb pontjai, és mit vettünk figyelembe a döntés során? A vizuális közleményben mindezt tömören és közérthetően ismertetjük.
További információk
MONETÁRIS POLITIKA
2026. július 23.
Az EKB legutóbbi sajtóértekezlete
Christine Lagarde elnök és Boris Vujčić alelnök ismertette a Kormányzótanács legutóbbi monetáris politikai döntéseit, és sajtóértekezleten válaszolt újságírók kérdéseire.
További információk
THE ECB BLOG
27 July 2026
Why this shock moved energy prices less
Why have energy prices risen less during the Iran war than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? This ECB Blog post compares the two episodes and explains the role of market buffers, demand and competition for LNG shipments.
Read The ECB Blog- 28 July 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 28 July 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 27 July 2026
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 27 July 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 July 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 24 July 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 24 July 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 July 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MacGill Summer School 2026 in Glenties, Co. Donegal, Ireland
- 23 July 2026
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 23 July 2026EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 July 2026
- Lecture by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Meeting of the Federation of Italian Cooperative Credit Banks (Federcasse)
- 13 July 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Annual Economic Reception of the Deputy Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia in Münster, Germany
- 6 July 2026
- Dinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Closing Conference of the European System of Central Banks Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP)[1]
- 15 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Élisabeth Montaufray-Bureau on 10 July 2026
- 13 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Ricardo Jesus Silva on 29 June 2026
- 2 July 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit and Christophe Jakubyszyn on 24 June 2026
- 25 June 2026
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Schieritz and Kolja Rudzio on 19 June 2026
- 10 June 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Daan Ballegeer and Rutger Betlem on 19 May 2026
- 27 July 2026
- Why have energy prices risen less during the Iran war than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? This ECB Blog post compares the two episodes and explains the role of market buffers, demand and competition for LNG shipments.Details
- JEL Code
- Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Related - 24 July 2026
- Amid ongoing concerns over European productivity growth, this ECB Blog post looks at the relationship between macroprudential policy and productivity.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 15 July 2026
- Global trade tensions have become a significant source of risk for firms with cross-border business. This post looks at corporate loans and survey data on bank lending conditions to examine how banks have adjusted their lending policies in response.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
B17 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→History of Economic Thought through 1925
- 13 July 2026
- Chinese e-commerce platforms have become increasingly popular in the euro area. An ECB survey shows that shoppers are attracted by low prices and a wide product range. However, concerns about quality, trust and environmental consequences deter non-users.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
L81 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Retail and Wholesale Trade, e-Commerce
- 10 July 2026
- The ECB is upgrading its economic modelling to cope with growing uncertainty in a time of war and energy shocks. This ECB Blog highlights the limitations of the current toolkit and looks at where modelling is now heading.Details
- JEL Code
- C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 28 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3261Details
- Abstract
- The climate crisis is an urgent, human-driven systemic challenge whose impacts are unfolding through increasingly frequent and severe extreme events. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement advanced global climate governance, implementation remains insufficient to limit warming to well below 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Accelerating risks, interacting crises and potential tipping points suggest that climate change could become unmanageable if current GHGs emissions trajectories persist. This paper makes three contributions. First, it examines why we are failing to act decisively, highlighting a persistent awareness gap, competing priorities and weak political incentives for ambitious climate action. Second, it draws on NGFS climate-policy scenarios, the climate policy trilemma and a precautionary approach to clarify policymaking trade-offs under uncertainty. Third, it reviews policy, financial and technological levers to accelerate a just green transition. A new climate policy paradigm is needed: a systemic, precautionary, adaptive and incentive-compatible framework that can “tilt the odds” away from irreversible climate damage, even when probabilities are poorly known.
- JEL Code
- D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
D62 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Externalities
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 28 July 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 395Details
- Abstract
- This paper explores the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies among euro area firms, using harmonised firm-level data from two dedicated modules of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) conducted in June and December 2025. Based on responses from around 6,000 firms across 12 euro area countries, the study examines AI adoption rates, drivers, barriers and economic implications. The findings suggest that AI diffusion among euro area firms is progressing rapidly but unevenly, with significant variation across countries and firm characteristics. Approximately 70% of firms report some level of AI use, but only 7% classify their adoption as significant. Adoption is highest in the Netherlands, Finland and Austria, and lowest in Italy and Ireland. Larger and younger firms, particularly in technology-intensive sectors, are leading adopters. Firms identify expected improvements in business processes as the main driver of adoption, while key barriers include skill shortages, data privacy concerns and system incompatibilities. Current AI use and investment are primarily financed through internal funds, complemented by grants and subsidised bank loans. AI adoption is positively associated with firm productivity, turnover growth, fixed investment and own selling price expectations, particularly among intensive users. Survey data show no evidence yet of aggregate labour shedding; instead, AI adoption is positively associated with employment growth. However, firms’ inflation expectations appear largely unaffected by current AI use.
- JEL Code
- C93 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Design of Experiments→Field Experiments
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 28 July 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 145Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy tightening generates valuation losses on banks’ securities portfolios, reducing the collateral available for interbank borrowing. Using detailed euro area data, we show that banks with larger securities losses during the 2022-23 monetary policy tightening cycle obtained less interbank funding and reduced lending to firms, even when losses did not affect regulatory capital. These effects were strongest for banks with limited liquidity buffers and high collateral utilisation. While internal capital markets partly shield domestic subsidiaries within banking groups, foreign subsidiaries receive less support, pointing to persistent fragmentation in cross-border liquidity allocation and uneven monetary policy transmission across the euro area.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 27 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3260Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened. Across the distribution, safer firms reduced outstanding credit lines and paid unchanged interest rates on new bank loans, while riskier firms borrowed at higher interest rates.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 27 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3259Details
- Abstract
- Elevated repo rate specialness for German government bonds in 2016–17, and particularly in 2022-23, has often been linked to the absorption of these securities by the ECB’s asset purchase programmes. We provide the first evidence on how the debt management office mitigates these effects by jointly analyzing daily secondary-market trades and repo operations of the Deutsche Finanzagentur (DFA) alongside Eurosystem transactions in Bunds from 2015–2024. We find two points: first, that Eurosystem purchases depress repo rates about four times more than DFA purchases (0.4 bp vs 0.1 bp per 1% of free float), while DFA repo lending raises repo rates by roughly 0.2 bp per 1% of outstanding volume. Our evidence suggests that DFA interventions helped mitigate scarcity-induced specialness. Second, with elevated hedge fund demand for bonds, the overall alleviating impact was constrained by segmentation in the repo market and by the design of the facilities themselves, which aimed to prevent collateral shortages and fails-to-deliver rather than to provide price support.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 24 July 2026
- BANK TREASURER SURVEY
- 24 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3258Details
- Abstract
- We find that whether US import tariffs have supply-side effects or demand-side effects on US manufacturing sectors depends on where the affected sectors are located in the US production network. Using local projections in a panel of US manufacturing sectors, we find that US import tariffs —including the 2018-19 tariff hikes— led to sectoral output contractions via two different channels: (1) Tariff increases act as negative supply shifters for sectors that use goods from tariff-facing sectors as input in production and thus face rising input costs. (2) Tariff increases act as negative demand shifters for sectors whose customer sectors suffer negative supply side effects due to tariffs and reduce their production. We show that these results are consistent with a stylized production network model featuring complementarities in production. Overall, our finding suggests that tariffs markedly reduce US manufacturing production and that the role of input–output linkages is key for understanding the transmission of import tariff shocks to output and producer prices.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
- 24 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3257Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops an agent-based framework (DeTail) to assess the state-contingent tail effects of releasable macroprudential capital buffers. The model features heterogeneous firms, households, and banks, and a single central bank, all interacting in a fully integrated, stock-flow consistent framework which generates endogenous credit cycles. Using this approach, we evaluate how time-varying capital requirements affect the time-varying distributions of credit growth, firm and household default rates, and bank losses along the credit cycle. Policy experiments show that releasing capital buffers during economic downturns preserves credit supply by improving risky (lower-tail) credit outcomes, reduces both household and firm defaults, and supports macro-financial resilience by limiting tail bank losses. At the same time, capital buffer accumulation during upturns imposes minimal costs and does not significantly constrain lending. These findings support the active use of releasable buffers to mitigate systemic risk and smooth credit cycles without weakening the banking system.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 24 July 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 24 July 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 24 July 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 76 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 22 June and 1 July 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the second quarter with similar momentum expected for the third quarter. While the war in the Middle East was weighing on consumer spending somewhat, the overall impact on activity seemed limited as some firms benefited from less competition and precautionary stockbuilding. Employment dynamics were rather subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode. Selling prices rose more quickly in the second quarter, reflecting the pass-through from rising oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict. The acceleration was less than anticipated in the previous survey round, however, with some slowing expected ahead. Contacts continued to anticipate moderating wage growth.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 23 July 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 21 July 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 21 July 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 20 July 2026
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 20 July 2026
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 15 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3256Details
- Abstract
- We study the evolution of bank branch networks in ten CESEE countries between 2013 and 2021. Using a manually compiled dataset of all branches and their geocoordinates, we document a decline exceeding 30%, with substantial heterogeneity across and within countries. We show that banking market consolidation is a key driver of closures, while profitability and local economic growth mitigate them. Branches in highly urban or very rural areas close more often. Competitive effects are nonlinear: moderate clustering lowers closure risk, but intense competition increases it. These patterns differ markedly across CESEE banking systems during the entire period we analyze.
- JEL Code
- D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
R12 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
- 15 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3255Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the supply and demand drivers of bank deposit pricing in the Euro area during the period 2007–2024. We document that the pass-through of policy rates to sight deposit rates is low, asymmetric, varies across the monetary policy regimes, and decreases over time. We build and estimate an equilibrium model of bank deposit markets, and find that the price sensitivity of depositors exhibits large heterogeneity between households and firms, across countries, and over time. Our estimates suggest that rate-sensitive depositors increasingly switched to alternative, higher-yielding savings products over time, thereby decreasing the average rate-sensitivity of the remaining pool of sight deposits. In turn, banks’ market power over sight deposits increased, thereby accounting for the sluggish increase in overnight deposit rates following the 2022 European Central Bank’s policy rate hikes.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 14 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3254Details
- Abstract
- We study the short-run macroeconomic transmission of a US–China tariff war in an open economy multi-sector New Keynesian model with input–output linkages, sectoral nominal rigidities, and heterogeneous currency invoicing. A reciprocal 10 percentage-point tariff increase generates asymmetric incidence: the tariff-imposing country bears more of the inflationary burden, while the targeted country experiences the larger output contraction. Production networks amplify this contraction by propagating the shock beyond the directly tariffed bilateral margin. Currency invoicing further shapes transmission. Under heterogeneous invoicing, dollar-priced border prices weaken the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates, deepening the contraction in China relative to producer-currency pricing and altering third-country spillovers. The EA response is small in the aggregate, but only because positive trade-diversion margins are offset by weaker demand from China and multilateral adjustments. We then exploit the model’s sectoral structure by imposing tariffs on one Chinese sector at a time. Sectoral incidence is highly concentrated, but aggregate effects cannot be inferred from the directly tariffed sector alone: domestic propagation offsets own-sector gains in the US, reinforces own-sector losses in China, and leaves the EA as a net object shaped by opposing trade margins. The results show that tariff incidence depends jointly on where the tariff lands, how the shock propagates through production networks, and how invoicing governs border-price adjustment. A framework that combines these margins delivers a materially different assessment from one built on bilateral trade shares alone.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 14 July 2026
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 31Details
- Abstract
- We study the role of geoeconomics in shaping globalisation and trade policy. We first review the evolution of world trade since the end of World War II, highlighting the drivers of globalisation and its economic consequences. We then synthesise recent research on geoeconomics, which analyses how countries use trade policy as a tool to pursue geopolitical objectives. Against this background, we argue that the gradual shift in geoeconomic power from the United States toward China since the 2000s has been driving a fragmentation in world trade along geopolitical lines. We provide conceptual policy recommendations for the European Union to navigate an environment characterised by intensifying geopolitical competition.
- JEL Code
- F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F1 : International Economics→Trade
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F6 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization
- 13 July 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3253Details
- Abstract
- We show that an unexpected tightening of the EU Emissions Trading System led high-emission-intensity firms to cut emissions relative to low-intensity peers within the same industry, without reducing output, thereby improving emission efficiency. Effects are stronger for power producers than for manufacturing firms. Examining mergers and acquisitions (M&As), we find that high-intensity manufacturing firms acquire more green targets after the tightening than low-intensity firms, with no change in the overall number of acquisitions, indicating a shift in focus rather than activity. Finally, we show that these green M&As contributed to the observed emission reductions over the study period.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Kamatlábak
| Betéti rendelkezésre állás | 2,25 % |
| Irányadó refinanszírozási műveletek (rögzített kamatláb) | 2,40 % |
| Aktív oldali rendelkezésre állás | 2,65 % |
Inflációs ráta
Bővebben az inflációrólÁrfolyam
| USD | US dollar | 1.1367 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 186.32 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85550 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9319 |
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