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Sándor Gardó

21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 273
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Abstract
The last review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges. Against this background, this report revisits monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area from a monetary policy perspective and with a focus on the ramifications for price stability and maintaining central bank independence and credibility. The report consists of three parts. The first chapter presents a conceptual framework for thinking about monetary-fiscal policy interactions, thereby setting the stage for a discussion of specifically euro area aspects and challenges in subsequent parts of the report. In particular, it reviews the main ingredients of the pre-global financial crisis consensus on monetary-fiscal policy interactions and addresses significant new insights and refinements which have gained prominence since 2003. In doing so, the chapter distinguishes between general conceptual aspects – i.e. those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and a single fiscal authority and those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and many fiscal authorities (a multi-country monetary union). ...
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
18 May 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021
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Abstract
Public loan guarantee schemes have been crucial in mitigating financial stability risks during the pandemic. At the same time, these schemes constitute sizeable and novel contingent liabilities for governments in most euro area countries, adding to the stock of both existing government guarantees and other implicit contingent liabilities, which reinforces concerns about the emergence of an adverse sovereign-bank-corporate nexus. More conventional materialisations of contingent liabilities related to implicit commitments towards large corporates and state-owned enterprises have occurred more frequently and have also entailed higher costs in the past and may still occur going forward. This would pose a larger tail risk for sovereigns than their direct exposure through guarantees would suggest. Against this backdrop, this box presents historical evidence from contingent liability materialisations, investigates their commonalities and differences with the situation under the current pandemic-induced shock and assesses the ensuing risk for sovereigns.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
23 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
The coronavirus pandemic has threatened the existence of many euro area firms. While liquidity shortages were seen as the major threat to corporate health at the beginning of the pandemic, more recently firms’ solvency has become the primary concern. Against this backdrop, this box assesses euro area corporate vulnerabilities and the underlying factors. It develops a new composite indicator that allows analysis of the time-varying impact and the relative importance of the factors driving corporate financial soundness and risk. Using aggregate sectoral accounts data, this measure combines indicators along five dimensions: debt service capacity, leverage/indebtedness, financing/rollover, profitability and activity. According to the composite indicator, corporate vulnerabilities have increased to levels last observed at the peak of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and are largely driven by a drop in sales, lower actual and expected profitability, and an increase in leverage and indebtedness. However, extensive monetary, fiscal and prudential policy measures have limited the increase in corporate vulnerability, primarily by ensuring favourable funding conditions. So far, government loan guarantees and bankruptcy moratoria have also prevented a large wave of corporate defaults, but a sizeable number of firms could be forced to file for bankruptcy if these measures are lifted too early or bank lending conditions tighten.
JEL Code
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
25 May 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020
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Abstract
On 27 March, ECB Banking Supervision recommended that banks refrain from paying out dividends and buying back shares until 1 October 2020, following earlier announcements of temporary capital and operational relief measures. All national authorities in the euro area had made similar requests to banks under their direct supervision. In recent years, euro area banks have increased dividend payouts and share buybacks. Had this continued under the current circumstances, it may have weakened the ability of banks to use retained earnings to absorb losses and support lending to the real economy. This box reviews patterns in global banks’ payouts to shareholders and the contribution that lower payouts may make towards improving bank resilience.
18 November 2019
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2019
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Abstract
Over the past decade, banks have been called to account for their past misconduct. The redress for misconduct has reduced the net income of euro area banks by one-third since the global financial crisis. Analysis further suggests that misconduct costs have had a negative impact on major euro area banks’ one-year buy-and-hold stock returns, after controlling for other bank-specific variables as well as bank and time fixed effects. This relationship appears to be strongest in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, which might indicate greater investor concern about misconduct costs during times of stress.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
K42 : Law and Economics→Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior→Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
11 November 2019
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 236
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Abstract
This paper takes an eclectic approach to investigating the notion of overcapacities in banking along the dimensions of (i) banking sector size, (ii) bank competition and (iii) banking infrastructure/efficiency, thereby offering a nuanced and granular view of the topic. In terms of measurement, a newly developed composite indicator synthesises these different layers into a single metric of overcapacities in banking, comparing developments in major advanced economies across the globe over the period from 2006 to 2017. Offering a relative comparison across countries and time, the composite indicator suggests that most countries in the sample have managed to reduce overcapacities in banking since the onset of the global financial crisis, albeit to varying degrees, as some were better able to adapt to the changing environment than others, in particular by deleveraging, rationalising costly physical infrastructure and exploiting the benefits of technological innovation. A panel framework is then used to analyse a number of hypotheses derived from the literature, with the aim of shedding light on the determinants of overcapacities in banking, the direction of the relationship, and their relative importance. The results indicate that non-bank competition, the interest rate environment as well as bank business models are the most important driving factors of the overall degree of overcapacity in banking. With respect to the specific dimensions, non-bank competition seems to be particularly relevant for the size pillar, while demographic features and technological innovation appear to play a prominent role for explaining the competition and infrastructure/efficiency dimensions. The findings provide useful insights for policy makers concerning the possible design, calibration and effectiveness of potential policy responses that aim to address the issue of overcapacities in banking.
JEL Code
C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L1 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
29 May 2019
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019
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Abstract
Weak corporate asset quality is a concern from a financial stability perspective. Distressed corporate debt has been the centrepiece of the high stock of non-performing loans (NPLs) of euro area banks. NPL stocks are a symptom of balance sheet difficulties faced by a large proportion of firms, which in turn may depress investment and employment, deprive banks of profitable lending opportunities, and therefore weigh on economic growth and the health of the banking sector itself.
29 May 2019
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019
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Abstract
Financial Stability Review, May Policy uncertainty has remained elevated in recent years for the euro area and the broader global economy, at a time when the political landscape has become more fragmented. Political uncertainty has increased considerably since the global financial crisis in advanced economies. While political uncertainty is hard to capture in any single measure, heightened political fragmentation may complicate decision-making in national parliaments and could in certain instances potentially lead to policy instability. On this basis, a secular increase in the number of political parties during the past decades and a gradual decline in the voting share of the winning party suggests less cohesive political processes across constituencies. Independent of the attribution of political uncertainty to an underlying cause, swings in policy uncertainty have grown in recent years, with trade policy uncertainty gaining prominence due to growing trade protectionism.
24 May 2018
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2018
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Abstract
Emerging market economies have experienced accelerated financial deepening since the onset of the financial crisis. Consequently, financial stability risks emanating from emerging markets may spill over more widely to the global financial system. A key focus in this regard has been China, not least given the sheer size of its banking sector and the country’s growing role in international finance. Against this background, this box investigates the risks related to the growing size and systemic importance of Chinese banks and their possible implications for euro area financial stability.
28 May 2014
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2014
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Abstract
In light of the recent emerging market tensions, this special feature takes stock of euro areabanks’ emerging market exposures by identifying the major sources and types of related risks and highlighting some of the potential financial channels of contagion. Euro area banks’ emerging market exposures are analysed in time and cross-sectional dimensions, at the country and individual bank level, as well as in absolute terms and relative to some bank balance sheet metrics. Within a panel regression framework, the special feature also seeks to identify those emerging economies that – based on their credit metrics and fundamentals – are the most exposed to financial stability risks, which, if they materialise, may have negative repercussions for euro area banks with sizeable exposures to those economies.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
26 July 2010
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 115
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Abstract
This paper reviews financial stability challenges in the EU candidate countries: Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. It follows a macro-prudential approach, emphasising systemic risks and the stability of financial systems as a whole. The paper recalls that the economies of all three countries experienced a recession in 2008-09 and shows how this slowed the rapid process of financial deepening that had been taking place since the beginning of the last decade. The deteriorating economic and financial conditions manifested themselves, first and foremost, through a marked deterioration in asset quality. These direct credit risks were compounded by the transformation of exchange and interest rate risks through a widespread use of foreign exchange-denominated or indexed loans and variable or adjustable interest rate loans. Moreover, funding and liquidity risks also materialised to some extent, although fully fledged bank runs were avoided, and none of the countries experienced a sharp reversal in external financing. Overall, the deterioration in asset quality has so far been managed well by the banking systems of the candidate countries, facilitated by large capital buffers, pro-active macro-prudential policies pursued by the authorities both before and during the crisis and the relative stability of exchange rates. Looking ahead, although uncertainties remain high regarding credit quality, the shock-absorbing capacities of the banking systems are fairly robust, as also evidenced by their relative resilience so far. Nevertheless, as the economic recovery sets in, the central banks should return to and possibly reinforce the implementation of measures to avoid a pro-cyclical build-up of credit asset) boom-bust cycles. Furthermore, given the relevance of foreign-owned banks in two of the three countries, a continued strengthening of home-host cooperation in the supervisory area will be crucial to avoid any kind of regulatory arbitrage.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 June 2010
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 114
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Abstract
The paper first reviews the main drivers of the growth and real convergence process in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) since 2000 and assesses the key macro-financial strengths and vulnerabilities of the region at the beginning of the global economic and financial crisis. The main part of the paper reviews financial and real economic developments in these countries since the crisis started to impact the CESEE region. The paper finds that developments have been rather heterogeneous in the region. CESEE countries with the largest economic imbalances tended to be most affected. National and international support measures appear to have helped to stabilise financial markets, and parent banks of foreign bank subsidiaries in CESEE were committed to sustaining their exposure to the region. The degree to which CESEE governments were able to use policy instruments to counter the real effects of the crisis is rather heterogeneous, depending inter alia on the exchange rate regime in place and the initial fiscal positions.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Network
Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
8 September 2008
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 95
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Abstract
This paper reviews financial stability challenges in the EU candidate countries Croatia, Turkey and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. It examines the financial sectors in these three economies, which, while at very different stages of development and embedded in quite diverse economic settings, are all in a process of rapid financial deepening. This manifests itself most clearly in the rapid pace of growth in credit to the private sector. This process of financial deepening is largely a natural and welcome catching-up phenomenon, but it has also increased the credit risks borne by the banking sectors in the three economies. These credit risks are compounded by the widespread use of foreign currency-denominated or -indexed loans, leaving unhedged bank customers exposed to potential swings in exchange rates or foreign interest rates. Moreover, these financial risks form part of a broader nexus of vulnerabilities in the economies concerned, in particular the external vulnerabilities arising from increasing private sector external indebtedness. That said, the paper also finds that the authorities in the three countries have taken several policy actions to reduce these financial and external vulnerabilities and to strengthen the resilience of the financial sectors.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Network
Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network