European Central Bank - eurosystem
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Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
Survey round Current
calendar year
Next
calendar year
Calendar year
after next
One year ahead Two years ahead Longer term
(five years ahead)
2013 Q2 12.3 12.2 11.6 12.3 11.99.6
2013 Q3 12.3 12.4 11.8 12.4 12.09.7
2013 Q4 12.1 12.1 11.6 12.0 11.69.5
2014 Q1 12.1 11.7 11.2 12.0 11.59.6
2014 Q2 11.8 11.5 11.0 11.7 11.29.5
2014 Q3 11.6 11.3 10.8 11.4 10.99.4
2014 Q4 11.6 11.3 10.9 11.3 10.99.5
2015 Q1 11.3 10.9 10.3 11.2 10.79.4
2015 Q2 11.1 10.6 10.1 10.8 10.49.2
2015 Q3 11.0 10.5 10.0 10.7 10.19.0
2015 Q4 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.19.2
2016 Q1 10.3 9.9 9.4 10.1 9.79.0
2016 Q2 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.9 9.58.8
2016 Q3 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.8 9.68.8
2016 Q4 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.7 9.38.7
2017 Q1 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.08.5
2017 Q2 9.4 9.1 8.7 9.1 8.88.4
2017 Q3 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.8 8.58.1
2017 Q4 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.5 8.27.9
2018 Q1 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 7.87.5
2018 Q2 8.3 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.67.4
2018 Q3 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.67.5
2018 Q4 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.67.5
2019 Q1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.57.5
2019 Q2 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.57.4
2019 Q3 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.47.3
2019 Q4 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.47.4
2020 Q1 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.47.3
2020 Q2 9.4 8.9 8.4 9.6 8.77.7
2020 Q3 9.1 9.3 8.5 9.5 8.87.7
2020 Q4 8.3 9.1 8.4 9.1 8.47.6
2021 Q1 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.8 8.17.4
2021 Q2 8.5 8.1 7.7 8.4 7.97.4
2021 Q3 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.67.2
2021 Q4 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.27.0
2022 Q1 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.86.7
2022 Q2 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.76.6
2022 Q3 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.66.4
2022 Q4 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.96.6
2023 Q1 7.0 6.9 6.7 7.0 6.86.4
2023 Q2 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 6.76.5
2023 Q3 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.66.5
2023 Q4 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.66.5
2024 Q1 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5
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