Ni na voljo v slovenščini.
Vlad Burian
- 2 April 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Over recent years we have observed that different oil market states can significantly influence how oil prices respond to shocks. Using a non-linear local projections framework, we find that oil prices react more strongly to oil supply shocks when key state variables – namely, investment fund positions, supply-demand imbalances and oil inventories – are at extreme levels, regardless of the sign of the shock. Further distinguishing between the sign of the shock and whether a state variable is unusually high or low provides additional insights. Upside risks to oil prices are most critical when oil supply is tight relative to demand, and investors hold very long positions at the time of an oil price surge. Conversely, downside risks are most pronounced when oil prices start to decrease in an environment of ample supply, and investors hold very short positions, leading to particularly large declines in oil prices.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- This special feature uses granular data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS) to investigate whether foreign holdings of euro area securities react to geopolitics. Where similar information is available from the US Treasury, a comparison is made with respect to foreign holdings of US Treasury securities. The analysis reveals several key insights. First, foreign investors hold almost a quarter of both euro area and US government debt. While these total foreign holdings are concentrated in countries geopolitically aligned with the West, foreign official sector holdings of euro area government debt are mainly held by non-aligned countries. Second, official foreign investors’ holdings of euro area government debt have remained generally resilient since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decline in holdings of countries (excluding Russia) that are not geopolitically aligned with the West, which have dropped by 5% relative to pre-invasion levels, has so far been contained, highlighting the importance of upholding the rule of law. Econometric estimates suggest that geopolitical non-alignment explains at least part of this decline. These patterns still hold, even after correcting for geographic biases in international financial statistics to the extent possible. As the decline is small, the impact on euro area bond yields has been very limited thus far.
- JEL Code
- F30, F60 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 20 March 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The use of artificial intelligence (AI) models has grown rapidly in recent years. This box explores how these models could affect energy demand in the future. Over the period from 2022 to 2026, the AI-related rise in global electricity consumption is projected to equal around 4% of the EU’s total electricity consumption and is likely to be met by either natural gas power plants or renewables. While this increase is significant in absolute terms, it is expected to have a limited impact on gas prices given the vast size of global natural gas markets. By contrast, the fragmented nature of national electricity markets means these markets are more vulnerable to AI-driven price pressures.
- JEL Code
- Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation