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Philip R. Lane

22 June 2021
Lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Athens University of Economic and Business
25 May 2021
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
5 May 2020
We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the reduced-form Phillips Curve to the (semi-)structural models used at the ECB. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve by exploiting cross-country variation and by using high-frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. Third, we present reduced-form evidence, focusing on the relation between slack and inflation and the role of inflation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of inflation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass-through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of inflation expectations remain central to successful inflation stabilisation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
10 July 2013
Europe experienced substantial cross-country variation in domestic credit growth and cross border capital flows during the pre-crisis period. We investigate the inter-relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows over 1993-2008, with a special focus on the 2003-2008 boom period. We establish that domestic credit growth in European countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows. This pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
11 November 2005
We examine the bilateral composition of international bond portfolios for the euro area and the individual EMU member countries. We find considerable support for "euro area bias": EMU member countries disproportionately invest in one another relative to other country pairs. Another striking pattern is the positive connection between trade linkages and financial linkages in explaining asymmetries across EMU member countries in terms of their outward and inward bond investments vis-
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
ECB-CFS Research Network on "Capital Markets and Financial Integration in Europe"