European Central Bank - eurosystem
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Kezdőlap Média Kisokos Kutatás és publikációk Statisztika Monetáris politika Az €uro Fizetésforgalom és piacok Karrier
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Máté Barnabás Tóth

11 May 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2815
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Abstract
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch of different dynamic factor model and bridge equation specifications. We evaluate it in real time over 2013-2022 and find that (i) monthly indicators provide useful information for a timely assessment of employment developments with unemployment rates and sentiment indicators containing most of the relevant information, (ii) the performance of small-scale models is comparable to those based on a larger information set, (iii) the suite performs favourably compared to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections,(iv) forecasting performance deteriorates temporarily at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic period, but the models outperform the benchmarks again thereafter.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
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Abstract
Strains in global supply chains of goods have been weighing on the global business cycle since late 2020. Given the multifaceted nature of supply bottlenecks, this box uses a relatively large set of indicators to track their causes. These indicators can help identify any signs of improvement or deterioration in specific economic sectors at an earlier stage. These sectoral indicators are represented in the form of heatmaps for the euro area and the United States. Recent data suggest that supply bottlenecks remain at historically high levels in both economies but may be starting to ease.
JEL Code
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General