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Marco Belloni

26 May 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020
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Abstract
As awareness of the environmental, social and economic risks from disorderly climate change has grown, so has awareness of the need for businesses to accelerate their decarbonisation. Banks need to be prepared for changes in loan performance should financial losses result from abrupt shifts in policies, technologies or consumer sentiment in response to the risks posed by climate change. While credit ratings could in principle capture such risks, in practice rating agencies have only just begun incorporating risks arising from an abrupt transition to a low-carbon economy.
23 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
Credit rating downgrades - especially downgrades from investment grade to high yield (“fallen angels”) - can adversely affect the price and ease of a firm’s debt issuance. Such a downgrade can force (institutional) investors to sell securities, as investment mandates may restrict the securities that they are allowed to hold. We find that market repricing does not typically happen instantaneously after a downgrade, but instead over an extended period which preceding the actual downgrade. The impact of sales by institutional investors is softened by differences in the definition of “investment grade” and flexibility in investment funds’ mandates. Fallen angels since February 2020 follow this pattern, but with a swifter and stronger increase in the credit premium before the first downgrade. Securities of pandemic-related fallen angels show some post-event illiquidity which may be explained by the relatively sudden change in the broader economic outlook and wider market stress. Downgrades to below investment grade are typically also associated with lower bond issuance volumes. If a larger cohort of firms were to face funding pressures, this increases their vulnerability to shocks in the near term and, in the long term, could weigh on investment, creating wider macroeconomic costs.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
24 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
Green financial markets are growing rapidly. Funds with an environmental, social and corporate governance mandate have grown by 170% since 2015 and 57% of them are domiciled in the euro area. The outstanding amount of green bonds issued by euro area residents has grown ten-fold over the same period. The large flows into ESG funds and green assets are expected to be sustained over time by increasing concerns around climate change, a gradual generational transfer of wealth towards millennials, and better disclosure and understanding of ESG risks. Given the financial stability risks from climate change, this box aims to understand the performance of such products and their potential for greening the economy. It focuses on the resilience of ESG funds and the absence of a consistent “greenium” – a lower yield for green bonds compared with conventional bonds of similar risk profile – reflecting the fact that green projects do not enjoy benefit from cheaper financing.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
25 November 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020
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Abstract
We examine some aspects of how the low-for-even-longer interest rate environment may affect bank lending margins and overall financial stability. We find evidence that margins fall more in response to declines in nominal short-term rates when these are low to begin with. The compression of margins reflects the sluggish response to further policy rate cuts of deposit rates as these approach the zero lower bound. Moreover, the analysis indicates that bank margins and overall profitability are influenced by both the level of real rates and, more materially, the level of inflation expectations embedded in nominal rates, which reflects the fact that bank profits are partly akin to seigniorage.
JEL Code
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
28 June 2021
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 13
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Abstract
This contribution reviews historical drivers of bank dividend payouts in the euro area. Economic literature presents three main reasons for adjustments to dividend payouts: asymmetric information between shareholders and management, the presence of agency costs, and regulatory constraints. Using a panel data approach, the article finds evidence supporting all three hypotheses. Banks lower dividends after facing a decline in profits and capital, but counterfactual simulations show that this adjustment could be small. Regulatory restrictions may therefore be warranted in the event of large expected losses or heavy uncertainty.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy