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Nander de Vette

31 May 2023
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
Following a strong post-pandemic recovery in profits, euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) are now facing the risk of stagnating economic activity combined with tightening financial conditions. NFC vulnerabilities might increase as higher interest rates start to weigh on the ability of firms to cover their interest expenses, with highly indebted firms being particularly affected. This box shows that the share of vulnerable loans has been increasing since the second half of 2022 as financial conditions tighten, with those sectors of the economy that were impacted the most by the pandemic being significantly more affected than others. It also finds that higher interest rates could increase corporate vulnerabilities during periods of low or negative economic growth, while there is no statistically significant impact of higher rates on firms’ health during periods of economic expansion.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
30 May 2023
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
The ability of market participants to access funding and conduct transactions in an efficient way is a prerequisite for financial stability, providing shock-absorption capacity and, in turn, limiting the scope for shock amplification. Market liquidity and funding liquidity are inherently connected. When market liquidity evaporates, financial market pricing becomes less reliable and tends to overreact, leading to increased market volatility and higher funding costs. Funding liquidity enables market participants to take exposures onto their balance sheets, thus absorbing fluctuations in demand and supply in the name of efficient market functioning. Under extreme conditions, markets can stop functioning altogether. While liquidity has many dimensions, from a systemic perspective the interplay between market liquidity and funding liquidity is key, as these two dimensions can reinforce each other in ways that generate liquidity spirals. Cyclical factors such as the business cycle, systemic leverage and monetary and fiscal policy affect the probability of liquidity stress arising. In the light of the current challenges of high financial market volatility, increased risk of recession, bouts of heightened risk aversion and monetary policy normalisation, this special feature constructs composite indicators for market liquidity and funding liquidity. It attempts also to identify the causes of poor market and funding liquidity conditions and to show how the two dimensions interact in the euro area.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
16 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
When financial fragmentation becomes a self-reinforcing dynamic, it can present a risk to financial stability. Moreover, when markets are fragmented, differences in risk premia can emerge beyond those that can be explained by an asset’s fundamentals, and some market segments may display different dynamics from others. This box constructs an indicator of such divergent dynamics for euro area bond markets, assesses the resilience of bond markets under different regimes of this indicator and discusses financial stability risks associated with financial fragmentation.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F65 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Finance
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
15 November 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022
Details
Abstract
Digitalisation is transforming the global economy, including by raising productivity and broadening consumer access to information. While these forces are facilitating greater competition, supporting economic growth and lowering prices, the benefits are not without risks – the flip side of digitalisation can be greater vulnerability to cyberattacks. For these to be a source of risk to financial stability, substitutability, risk correlation and interconnectedness are all key dimensions. A cyberattack on a critical infrastructure or an attack on one service that unearths vulnerabilities in another could quickly lead to system-wide stresses. Negative externalities arising from the effectiveness of financial institutions’ management of cyber risk could provide grounds for a public policy response. While the existing macroprudential policy toolkit has limited capacity to address cyber risks, their growing relevance nevertheless calls for macroprudential overseers to anticipate them, assess the capacity of the financial system to absorb them, and to issue risk warnings when warranted. In this vein, econometric evidence suggests that cyberattacks are not random, but are driven by factors such as economic strength, the degree of financial globalisation as well as policy and political uncertainty. This underscores how important it is for authorities to foster the sharing of information and the closing of data gaps on cyberattacks.
JEL Code
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
D62 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Externalities
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
H41 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→Public Goods
25 May 2022
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022
Details
Abstract
By the end of 2021, the aggregate profitability and debt positions of euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) had recovered to pre-pandemic levels. However, these aggregate developments mask considerable heterogeneity among firms; smaller firms and firms with business models heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic had not fully recovered. Against this backdrop, this box uses firm-level data for euro area NFCs to identify vulnerable firms based on the Altman Z-score, a measure of insolvency risk that uses five balance sheet and income statement ratios and their joint importance. It then matches bank and sovereign exposures to consider related risks associated with the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus., smaller firms and firms with business models heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic had not fully recovered. Against this backdrop, this box uses firm-level data for euro area NFCs to identify vulnerable firms based on the Altman Z-score, a measure of insolvency risk that uses five balance sheet and income statement ratios and their joint importance. It then matches bank and sovereign exposures to consider related risks associated with the sovereign-bank-corporate nexus.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Investment banking revenues have contributed markedly to the recent increase in euro area banks’ non-interest income growth and the rebound in bank profitability. Internationally, equity capital market (ECM) revenue has doubled in the last three years, while debt capital market (DCM) and merger and acquisition (M&A) revenue has increased by around 50%, with only syndicated lending remaining more subdued. In the euro area, however, the most significant volume increase has come from debt instruments, which have long been the preferred source of corporate funding in the euro area ahead of equity. Despite the international growth in capital market volumes, market commentary before the pandemic suggested that investment banking was the “problem child” of European banking, with many large banks retreating from various market segments as they faced the fallout from the global financial crisis. Against this background, this box considers the recent developments in investment banking of euro area banks in relation to some of the prior trends and considers how sustainable the recent strength might be.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Euro area sovereigns have issued significant amounts of new debt in response to the pandemic. While fiscal support was crucial to limit economic scarring and aid the recovery, it has also triggered concerns about medium to longer-term sovereign debt sustainability. One of the key factors for assessing sovereign debt sustainability is the interest rate-growth differential (
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt